Mike Novogratz on the Fed Pivot, Stocks, Geopolitics and Bitcoin

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4.6 • 757 Ratings

🗓️ 26 December 2023

⏱️ 37 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

On this episode of “On The Tape,” Dan Nathan and Guy Adami sit down with Mike Novogratz, CEO of Galaxy Investment Partners, for a conversation about the macro environment, Fed and bitcoin. Key Insights from the Pod: What’s changed in the markets (1:45) Debt to GDP (4:15) China/Taiwan (6:00) Inflation (9:40) Interest rates (14:35) Currencies/Gold/Bitcoin (20:00) Reasons to be bullish Bitcoin right now (28:30) The potential Bitcoin ETF (37:00) Regulation (37:45) — About the Show: On The Tape is a weekly podcast with CNBC Fast Money’s Guy Adami, Dan Nathan and Danny Moses. They’re offering takes on the biggest market-moving headlines of the week, trade ideas, in-depth analysis, tips and advice. Each episode, they are joined by prominent Wall Street participants to help viewers make smarter investment decisions. Bear market, bull market, recession, inflation or deflation… we’re here to help guide your portfolio into the green. Risk Reversal brings you years of experience from former Wall Street insiders trading stocks to experts in the commodity market. — Check out our show notes here Learn more about Ro body: ro.co/tape See what adding futures can do for you at cmegroup.com/onthetape. — Shoot us an email at [email protected] with any feedback, suggestions, or questions for us to answer on the pod and follow us @OnTheTapePod on Twitter or @riskreversalmedia on Threads — We’re on social: Follow @GuyAdami on Twitter Follow Danny Moses @DMoses34 on Twitter Follow Liz Young @LizYoungStrat on Twitter Follow us on Instagram @RiskReversalMedia Subscribe to our YouTube page The financial opinions expressed in Risk Reversal content are for information purposes only. The opinions expressed by the hosts and participants are not an attempt to influence specific trading behavior, investments, or strategies. Past performance does not necessarily predict future outcomes. No specific results or profits are assured when relying on Risk Reversal. Before making any investment or trade, evaluate its suitability for your circumstances and consider consulting your own financial or investment advisor. The financial products discussed in Risk Reversal carry a high level of risk and may not be appropriate for many investors. If you have uncertainties, it's advisable to seek professional advice. Remember that trading involves a risk to your capital, so only invest money that you can afford to lose. Derivatives are not suitable for all investors and involve the risk of losing more than the amount originally deposited and any profit you might have made. This communication is not a recommendation or offer to buy, sell or retain any specific investment or service.

Transcript

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0:00.0	Welcome to a special, and this is a special edition of the On the Tape podcast, Guy Domi, always joined by Dan Nathan.
0:07.7	But today, a special guest, a man that needs no introduction, Mike Novagratt's CEO of Galaxy.
0:13.9	Last time we spoke, it was on a stage at Eye Connections.
0:17.9	It was January of this year.
0:20.2	I think Bitcoin was probably what, 16,000, 17,000 or so
0:24.2	is. Obviously, we're going to talk about crypto, but so much has changed in the macro environment
0:29.3	since then. So from 30,000 feet, all the things that have transpired, a stock market that seemingly
0:35.3	goes up every day. What are your thoughts on things
0:37.7	today as we sit here in December? You're looking back, there's two things that surprised everyone.
0:42.2	One is how fast inflation came down. And the second is the overall resilience of the economy.
0:47.7	And so I'm going to take those backwards. I think we're going to look back 15 years from now
0:53.0	and we're going to say, wait a minute, why was the economy so
0:55.6	resilient? When Donald Trump took office, he increased federal spending, one of the largest
1:01.3	increases in history. We went from $3 trillion to $3.9 trillion of federal spending. And then COVID
1:08.9	happened, and he put his foot on the gas. And then Biden
1:11.8	came in and he said, hey, it's my party too. And between those two presidents who I think we'll go down
1:17.1	as the two worst presidents in fiscal history, we've taken federal spending as a percentage of GDP
1:23.1	from 20% to 25%. And we've normalized it at 25%. Right. Next year's budget is 25%. The following year's
1:30.6	budget is 25%. I worked at the White House in 1984. I was a GS4 working for David Stockman.
1:36.8	Tells how fucking old I am. And I learned real quickly, federal government gets to spend 20%. And we try to tax 20. We normally don't. We did in
1:46.0	1999, Bill Clinton, shout out. But those are the rules. And they changed the rules. And so since you've
1:51.4	been investing, since I've been investing, our models of how the economy works, are algorithm
	...

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