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Thoughts on the Market

Mid-Year Commodities Outlook: Risks Ahead?

Thoughts on the Market

Morgan Stanley

Strategy, Alternatives, Macro, Equities, Fixed Income, Investing, Global, Business, Markets, Economics

4.81.4K Ratings

🗓️ 3 June 2021

⏱️ 9 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Commodities prices have seen big moves over the last several months, but could a potentially stronger dollar and the mechanics of supply and demand cool the rally?

Transcript

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0:00.0

Welcome to Thoughts in the Market.

0:03.9

I'm Andrew Sheetz, Chief Cross-Asset Strategist for Morgan Stanley.

0:07.6

And I'm Martin Ratz, Morgan Sandy's Global Oil Strategist, and Head of the European Energy

0:11.4

Team.

0:12.4

And today on the podcast, we'll be talking about the outlook for oil and energy as the

0:16.1

world continues to reopen.

0:18.0

It's Thursday, June 3rd at 3pm in London.

0:22.5

Some Martin commodity prices have seen big moves over the last several months.

0:27.0

I think a great place to start is just putting some context around the price changes

0:32.0

and commodities we've seen and how these compare versus history.

0:35.6

What's been happening?

0:36.6

Over the last year or so, we've seen price changes that we've really only seen back

0:41.9

in the 1970s when commodities were also very much in focus.

0:45.2

So we've been historically very strong rally in commodity prices.

0:48.8

I would say a few things have come together to really drive that rally.

0:53.1

First of all, it's simply the reopening trade, the economies are opening up, the world

0:57.0

is getting back to business, and that is stimulating demand more than supply and a lot

1:01.2

of commodity markets have naturally tightened as a result of that.

1:04.3

The second factor that has played a role is this inflationary backdrop.

1:08.6

And in many ways, this goes a bit to ways.

1:10.6

On the one hand, rising commodity prices are a source of inflation, but all the financial

1:15.2

investors also use commodity futures to hedge themselves against future inflation.

...

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