It's Jim Kramer here. You're listening to the opening bell of CBC's Squawk on the Street. Don't miss a minute of the action. Good Monday morning. Welcome to Squawk on the Street. I'm Carl Kinteneer with David Faber and Mike Santoli at the New York Stock Exchange. Jim Kramer has the morning off. Pre-market pretty steady ahead of the big event of the week. And that's CPI tomorrow. Retail sales Wednesday. Yields do continue to creep higher.

Two-year, 456 is the highest since Thanksgiving. Our roadmap begins with National Security Mystery,

the U.S. now shooting down three unidentified flying objects since Friday, but details remain thin.

Plus, Apple shares are moving higher, this ahead of the open. The stock is up more than 16%

so far this year, and that has outperform the NASDAQ. And the Super Bowl's legalized gambling

boom, the American Gaming Association predicting that more than 50 million people bet about

$16 billion on the big game. Thinking about Jim today and that Eagle's loss.

We'll start with the markets though as we kick off a new trading week.

A lot of discussion over the weekend about is the market making sort of the same mistake that it made last summer,

counting on a Fed pivot that at least Morgan Stanley thinks is not coming soon?

Yes, that seems to be the crux of the debate.

So stock market has been acting

all year as if, okay, we got the soft landing scenario coming into view. That would imply

inflation taking care of itself, and that's last year's problem. And then the Fed, if not pivoting.

And I don't think the stock market required the Fed to actually start cutting, but getting to the end

of what the Fed's going to do.

And on the other side, the kind of, no, no, no, this is a slide that can't be reversed into

recession, and we're not going to get any relief on the economic front. Both of those are challenged

right now by this idea that the economy is holding up better. Yields are going higher. Maybe inflation

could be stickier. And it essentially becomes the, as it's being called, the no landing scenario.

Now, Mike Wilson is basically saying, look, in anything that we have in front of us, earnings are

going to be challenged. And so he's been calling for an earnings recession for quite a long time. And now he basically saying, well, you're not going to get the fed's help even if you get that earnings recession. So I think it's a good debate. Most of the most bullish people out there are bullish because of what the market itself has been doing. They're bullish because of the internal readings of the strength and the breadth of this rally and some of these momentum triggers. And a lot of that's sort of saying, maybe the market's sniffing out, a good scenario. Whereas the most bearish people are saying, we never had a yield curve disinverted without getting to a recession at some point not too far away. And the Fed hasn't really given you a green light. It's just kind of moderated its tone. So that is where we sit at this point. By the last week probably felt like worse than a, you know, one and a half percent decline in the S&P. People were acting as if there was really a lot more stress in there. We're only 2% off the highs from a couple weeks ago, 2, 3% on the S&P. So it's very much in the normal

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