Michael Zezas: Will Inflation Take the Wind Out of Infrastructure?
Thoughts on the Market
Morgan Stanley
4.8 • 1.4K Ratings
🗓️ 26 May 2021
⏱️ 3 minutes
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Summary
Concern has been rising that potentially higher inflation could make Congress lose its nerve on a multi-trillion dollar "Build Back Better" plan. Here’s our analysis.
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. |
| 0:03.8 | I'm Michael Zezis, Head of Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy for Morgan Stanley. |
| 0:08.4 | Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about |
| 0:11.6 | the intersection between U.S. public policy and financial markets. |
| 0:15.0 | It's Wednesday, May 26, at 10.30 a.m. in New York. |
| 0:19.7 | The financial press has inflation on the brain, and understandably so, given some recent |
| 0:24.0 | upside surprises in inflation data. |
| 0:26.3 | And last month's jobs report featured much slower than expected job growth, stoking |
| 0:30.3 | fears of a labor shortage and rising wages as a result. |
| 0:33.4 | That's got some investors worried that inflation fears might make Congress lose its nerve |
| 0:37.5 | on approving the multi-trillion dollar bill back better plan. |
| 0:41.2 | But that's not something we're worried about, mainly because inflation doesn't seem |
| 0:44.8 | to be something voters are worried about. |
| 0:47.0 | Take the latest Gallup issue poll, where only 3% of voters cited deficits as a key concern, |
| 0:52.0 | and only 2% of voters cited inflation as a key concern. |
| 0:55.2 | That makes sense when you consider how long it's been since realized inflation actually |
| 0:58.8 | negatively impacted the lives of most Americans. |
| 1:01.7 | And while that certainly could happen, perhaps even prodded by this big infrastructure package, |
| 1:06.4 | it's unlikely that happens soon enough to influence how Congress votes on this otherwise |
| 1:10.3 | popular set of proposals. |
| 1:12.4 | Even if you did continue to see inflation surprises, they'd likely have to be quite substantial |
| 1:16.5 | and happen very quickly to change their trajectory in DC. |
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