Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zizis, head of public policy and municipal strategy for Morgan Stanley.

Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the intersection between U.S. public

policy and financial markets. It's Wednesday, June 19th at 9 a.m. Eastern.

With the U.S. and China is set to me that the G20 next week, trade tensions

remain at the top of the list of questions investors are asking us.

Here's our answers to your most frequently asked questions.

First, why is this particular G20 meeting important?

There's two reasons in our view.

The first is communication. There's no compromise without communication and so it's a good sign that both sides are talking and that's particularly true given our second reason timing.

The G20 which occurs on June 28th and 29th, runs right up against the first week of July,

when the U.S. will likely have the ability to levy tariffs on the remaining $300 billion or so of imports from China.

Taken together, the G20 should tell us a lot about

whether or not more tariffs are coming. That's essential because in our view the

next round of tariffs could mean the difference between a growth slowdown and

an outright recession. Another common question, which US-China G-20 outcome

would be the trickiest for investors?

In our view, it's a tariff pause.

Backing up a bit, we see three possible paths

emerging from the G20.

The first is a resolution of trade tensions,

which seems unlikely given neither side has signaled movement on its remaining demands.

The third is an escalation of tariffs,

...