Welcome to Thoughts on the Market.

I'm Michael Zezis, Heather Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy for Morgan Stanley.

Along with my colleagues bring you a variety of perspectives.

I'll be talking about the intersection between U.S. Public Policy and Financial Markets.

It's Wednesday, March 10th at 11 a.m. in New York.

A decade ago, your average investor might not have cared to account for politics in their

portfolio.

Now, they have to.

Garner the days when investors could just think about the Fed and the business cycle, just

assume that the dynamics of global trade, fiscal policy, taxation, and geopolitical tensions

were either slow-moving or unchanging.

Investors now have to track the big political economy trends, and we've covered them for

you here too, trends including globalization, multi-polarity, and the infrastructure supercycle.

But we think it's valuable to zoom in from those broad multi-year trends and instead focus

in on how those dynamics are creating market catalysts over the next 12 months.

In a recent geopolitical risk playbook, we focus on five dynamics in particular.

The shift in U.S. fiscal policy from reactive to proactive, a coming return to trade tensions

with China, the beginning of a global energy transition, global digital tax negotiations,

and the potential for a green border tax in the EU.

We'll hit all of these topics in coming episodes, but for now, let's just scratch the surface

on the U.S. China issue.

The last time tensions flared in 2018 and 2019, tariff escalation resulted in higher

...