Welcome to Thoughts on the market. I'm Michael Zizis, head of Public Policy Research and Municipal Strategy for Morgan Stanley.

Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the intersection between U.S. public

policy and financial markets. It's Wednesday, March 4th at 11 a.m. Eastern.

What a difference a week can make.

Last week we were thinking about what the rise of Bernie Sanders to Frontrunner status for the Democratic nomination could mean.

He had just come off a stronger than expected win in Nevada,

and polling pointed to him winning nearly an insurmountable delegate margin a week later on Super Tuesday.

What actually happened was very different.

Joe Biden picked up a win by a far larger than expected margin in South Carolina

days later and improved upon his advantage in yesterday's Super Tuesday contests.

He notched larger than expected wins in key states like Virginia and North Carolina and

surprise victories in Massachusetts, Minnesota, and Texas.

Vote counting is ongoing in California,

and Sanders appears likely to win California

by enough of a margin to keep pace in delegate count.

But the script has been flipped.

A week ago, it seemed Biden was the one whose best outcome was to keep pace with a front runner.

Polls can swing of course, but usually not this much and not this quickly.

So is there anything for investors to learn from this unusual turn of events.

Yes, but perhaps it's not the lesson you might think.

Anecdotally, many investors have told us that Biden as the front runner might be better for risk markets

because he represents less of a change from the status quo and markets dislike uncertainty.

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