Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezes, Head of Public Policy and Municipal Strategy for Morgan Stanley.

Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives,

I'll be talking about the intersection between U.S. public policy and

financial markets.

It's Wednesday, October 16th at 9 a.m. Eastern.

Big news last week on the U.S. China Trade Front, or was it? While negotiators touted a major breakthrough, it seems to us that there

are still plenty of hurdles to clear before an arrangement can be made that's truly a difference

maker to the economic and markets outlook. That would require what we call a durable pause, an agreement

that has the hallmarks of being able to stick for the long haul, giving confidence to companies

that the worst of the trade conflict is behind us. In some ways this arrangement has the hallmarks of durability

unlike prior tariff pauses which tended to be built on a single issue like

increased purchases of farm products this one purportedly covers a range of

issues like foreign exchange and

opening up of key sectors. It's also said to be negotiated in stages which could

boost the odds of success by increasing the cost to either side of pulling away

from the table.

But much uncertainty remains, while both sides cited progress on issues that have been sticking

points in the past, like intellectual property and how to enforce a deal, the details of that

progress remain elusive.

Details are important and are arguably what broke down negotiations this past spring

after there were similar public pronouncements of an imminent deal.

On top of that, tariffs set to go in on

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