Welcome to Thoughts on the Market. I'm Michael Zezes, head of Public Policy and Municipal Strategy for Morgan Stanley.

Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about the intersection between U.S. public policy and financial markets.

It's Wednesday, July 17th at 9 a.m. Eastern.

Last week we talked about what investors need to know about health care reform proposals and the

2020 elections. We stick with that theme this week

answering the most frequently asked question from investors on this topic and that

question is this shouldn't investors just assume that a Democratic win means

private insurance companies are going away?

In our view, that's way too simple and can lead to some investment mistakes.

First, this question assumes that the main Democratic candidates for President all prefer

the same Medicare for All policy that effectively gets rid of private

insurance. True, many candidates have been co-sponsors of Medicare for All legislation in Congress.

But many of those same candidates have also been sponsors of less aggressive legislation as well

that would preserve a broader role for private insurance.

And when asked about their views on private insurance, their answers have been less than definitive.

All this suggests that the most aggressive policy proposals don't necessarily enjoy solid support.

And even if they did, we reiterate that the path to passing such a policy remains quite difficult.

As we argued last week, health care remains a partisan issue, meaning any

transformative proposal would likely require a unified government outcome in the

2020 election, something that current data suggests is unlikely.

And even if that were the case, we're unsure something as bold as Medicare

for all could pass without 60 Senate votes given the limitations of what can be passed

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