Michael Pettis on Persistent Imbalances in Post-Pandemic China
Odd Lots
Bloomberg
4.5 • 2K Ratings
🗓️ 11 March 2021
⏱️ 59 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
By some measures, the Chinese economy did better in 2020 than just about anywhere else. For one thing, it actually grew last year. Also because of the country's success at virus containment, it returned to normalcy faster than elsewhere. But the Chinese economy maintains persistent imbalances, and if anything, the pandemic may have accelerated them. On this episode, we spoke with Michael Pettis, a Finance Professor at Peking University and Senior Fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center, on where things stand now.
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| 0:00.0 | Adlots is brought to you by Apollo. When it comes to building and financing stronger businesses, |
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| 0:30.4 | Hello and welcome to another episode of the Adlots podcast. I'm Tracy Alloway. |
| 0:59.6 | And I'm Joe Wycenthal. So Joe, it has to be said that there are many ironies to come out of |
| 1:06.6 | the coronavirus crisis, but one of the big ones has to do with the fact that the outbreak started |
| 1:13.2 | in China in early 2020 and yet China had the best performing economy that year. |
| 1:20.4 | Yeah, I think it was the only major economy that actually grew overall in 2020, which is |
| 1:30.1 | pretty extraordinary. And I don't really know if it's true or if it will be durably true, |
| 1:36.3 | but I do think there's this sort of meme out there that like China won 2020 in some way that |
| 1:42.4 | it came out ahead. And I don't actually, I'm not, I haven't yet necessarily been convinced of it, |
| 1:47.1 | but because of China's growth and the quick rebound and its successful suppression of the virus, |
| 1:52.3 | that is like a thing people say. Yeah, so China's GDP grew. I think it was 2.3% last year, |
| 2:00.4 | which means it was the only major economy as you mentioned to escape contraction, |
| 2:06.8 | which is pretty amazing. And then of course, people have been pitching China's experience in 2020 |
| 2:12.8 | as sort of like proof of the benefits of a command economy. When you have something like an outbreak |
| 2:19.2 | in a country with a very strong government, you can control the population, you can put in place |
| 2:26.6 | restrictions and things that are ultimately going to make it easier to to fight the virus. And |
| 2:32.0 | of course, you can pull a bunch of levers to boost economic activity as well. So most people have |
| 2:38.6 | been talking about what an exceptional year it was for China sort of proves that their economic |
| 2:44.3 | model might be more resilient than some people think. But there are people out there who think that |
| 2:50.8 | actually 2020 wasn't as good a year for China as it's been portrayed. And that if anything, |
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