Michael Oren: Israel's historic Iran moment
The Times of Israel Daily Briefing
The Times of Israel
4.5 • 1.1K Ratings
🗓️ 20 February 2026
⏱️ 37 minutes
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Summary
Israel has never been stronger. Since October 7, 2023, Israel has steadily rolled back its enemies in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran. A staunch friend of Israel is in the White House, and he might well launch a second wave of strikes on Israel's archenemy in Tehran.
Or is Israel historically vulnerable? None of the adversaries it has taken on since the Hamas invasion are defeated. US President Donald Trump is an ally, but both the Democratic and Republican parties have influential and growing wings that are hostile to Israel, if not antisemitic.
To make sense of this moment, one needs a grasp of military strategy, Middle East geopolitics, and the workings of the US-Israel relationship.
Michael Oren, Israel's former envoy in Jerusalem and a leading Middle East historian, says that the post-October 7 wars represent "one of the greatest military victories in modern history, perhaps in all history." However, it remains to be seen whether Israel can translate the military victories into permanent strategic and diplomatic gains.
On the potential for a US strike in Iran, Oren stresses the importance of missile defense for the US Navy, as Iran's greatest achievement would be the sinking of an American aircraft carrier. He predicts that after Trump issued clear threats and put his reputation on the line, he is not going to back down and leave a legacy that could be compared to that of Barack Obama.
Looking at the future of the US-Israeli relationship, Oren notes that the US is going through domestic processes that Israel has no control over, but often use Israel to score political points. Given those trends, Israel should diversify its diplomatic relationships, but there will never be a replacement for American support.
Oren firmly supports Israel moving off of US military aid, and transforming its relationship with Washington into one of equal partners working together to develop capabilities.
Lazar Focus can be found on all podcast platforms. This episode was produced by Gabriella Jacobs and video edited by Ari Schlacht.
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Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Hello and welcome to this week's Laser Focus. I am Laser Berman. Now, a question I think many |
| 0:08.8 | people have been asking or should be asking right now is what kind of moment are we in, |
| 0:14.5 | in Israeli and perhaps Middle Eastern, perhaps world history? I think we have a sense that this is a |
| 0:20.1 | significant moment, perhaps an historic moment, think we have a sense that this is a significant moment, |
| 0:21.0 | perhaps an historic moment. But is this the cusp of a golden era for Israel? We can see that |
| 0:27.8 | our enemies have been beaten back in the past two and a half years. Hamas, Chisbalah, the Assad |
| 0:33.1 | regime in Syria, Iran. We can see that we have a great friend in the White House, perhaps the |
| 0:40.3 | best friend that Israel has ever had in the White House. Israel's economy is booming. Perhaps this |
| 0:45.1 | is the start of Israel's greatest period ever. That's one narrative. On the other hand, |
| 0:51.0 | you could look at it as not a single one of our enemies has been decisively |
| 0:55.7 | defeated. |
| 0:56.1 | Sure, there have been successes on the battlefield, but haven't they all been tactical? |
| 1:01.8 | Hamas is still armed, controls almost every Gazan, and says it won't give up its weapons. |
| 1:08.0 | Same with Chizbalah. |
| 1:09.7 | Nothing has been solved in Iran. And if you look over at the |
| 1:14.2 | White House, sure, Trump is very, very pro-Israel, but it might be that the next president, |
| 1:20.0 | if it's a Republican, is part of a very different wing of the Republican Party, one that is |
| 1:25.0 | anti-Israel, maybe even anti-Semitic. And if it's a Democrat, well, perhaps Joe Biden was the last pro-Israel Democrat. |
| 1:32.0 | So we'd like to make sense of where Israel stands militarily, politically, diplomatically in the region. |
| 1:37.7 | And to do that, I think we would have to speak to someone who understands military history, understands Middle Eastern history, understands the U.S. Israel relationship. |
| 1:45.7 | Well, thank God we are speaking to Ambassador Michael Oren. Michael, I'm sure many of you have heard of. |
| 1:52.8 | He was the ambassador in Washington, Israel's guy in Washington from 2009 to 2013. |
... |
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