MI271: The Long Term Debt Cycle & De-Dollarization “Fairytale” Explained w/ Alfonso Peccatiello

The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network

The Investor's Podcast Network

Investing, Education, Business

4.6 • 592 Ratings

🗓️ 9 May 2023

⏱️ 58 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Rebecca Hotsko and Alfonso Peccatiello discuss the current market outlook, including the driving force behind the market rally, its sustainability, Alfonso’s prediction of a 0% rate cut by the Fed in 2024, and a whole lot more! Alfonso Peccatiello is former Head of a $20 billion Investment Portfolio and now is the Founder and author of The Macro Compass, which is an investment strategy firm that provides financial education, macro insights and investment ideas. IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro. 02:05 - His current market outlook, whether this recent market rally is sustainable or not. 10:43 - Why Alfonso expects the Fed to cut rates to 0% in 2024? 22:07 - How the long-term debt cycle works, what are the key factors that drive it over time? 29:27 - Why Alfonso believes we are in the very late stages of the long term debt cycle? 33:41 - What implications does this has economically, and for the financial markets? 34:02 - Will we see a period of deleveraging similar to 2008 and 1929 in the US? 41:11 - The difference between a period of deleveraging and a recession. 50:22 - His thoughts on the trend of de-dollarization, is a US dollar centric world over and are there any possible alternatives to this dollar central world? 54:49 - The Impacts that an economic downturn and de-leveraging would have on a US dollar based global system. 60:09 - Alfonso’s portfolio strategy and investment take-aways given his outlook. *Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Kyle and the other community members. Check out The MacroCompass. Check out: The MacroCompass Substack. Related Episode: Listen to MI232: Understanding Quantitative Easing w/ Alfonso Peccatiello , or watch the video. NEW TO THE SHOW? Check out our Millennial Investing Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try Kyle’s favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Fiscal.AI Connect with Rebecca: Twitter | Instagram Email: Rebecca@theinvestorspodcast.com Connect with Alfonso: Website | Twitter Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Transcript

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0:00.0	You're listening to TIP. An orderly, de-dolarization is nothing more than a fairy tale. It doesn't exist.
0:07.9	And if you look at history, every time you have moved from one global reserve currency system
0:12.5	to another reserve currency or to another system whatsoever, a gold-backed system, a Bitcoin-backed
0:19.4	system, any other system, any of these transitions
0:21.8	has been quite rough and it has involved almost always proper geopolitical conflicts.
0:31.8	On today's episode, I chat with Alfonso Picatello, who's the founder and CEO of the MacroCompass, which provides
0:39.0	financial education, macro insights, and investment ideas. Alfonso is a macro expert, and in this
0:45.3	episode I bring him on to discuss his current outlook for markets, particularly what is driving
0:50.6	the recent rally we've been seeing, whether he thinks it's sustainable or not.
0:54.8	And Alfonso breaks down his bold prediction that the Fed will cut rates to 0% by 2024
1:00.8	rather than the 3% the market is currently expecting.
1:04.7	We then get into the big topic for the day, which is on the long-term debt cycle.
1:09.5	As Ray Dalio has said,
1:15.3	understanding how this cycle works is crucial to understanding the economy and what might happen in the future.
1:17.4	He also talks about why he believes the recent buzz about de-dollarization
1:21.7	and the U.S. dollar losing its reserve status in the world
1:25.2	is nothing more than a fairy tale at this point,
1:27.9	as well as he leaves us with some actionable portfolio strategies and investment takeaways
1:33.7	given this outlook. All right, without further delay, let's get right into today's episode.
1:40.6	You're listening to Millennial Investing by the Investors Podcast Network, where your hosts, Robert
1:46.5	Leonard and Rebecca Hotsko, interview successful entrepreneurs, business leaders and investors
1:51.6	to help educate and inspire the millennial generation.
	...

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