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The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network

MI264: How to Pick Stocks Using Earnings Estimate Revisions, Price Trends, and Valuations w/ Sam Burns

The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network

The Investor's Podcast Network

Education, Investing, Business

4.6592 Ratings

🗓️ 21 March 2023

⏱️ 58 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Rebecca Hotsko and Sam Burns discuss, Sam's 2023 market outlook, the strong market performance despite negative earnings revisions, and more! Sam Burns, CFA is the chief strategist at Mill Street Research – an independent research company specializing in proprietary institutional research tools for asset allocation, stock selection, and macro-economic indicators.   Burns has more than 20 years of experience as a market strategist providing US and global investment insights at Wall Street firms including Oppenheimer & Co., Brown Brothers Harriman, State Street Global Markets, and Ned Davis Research. IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN: 0:00 - Intro 02:45 - The current state of the market and Sam’s outlook for 2023.  09:46 - Why the market has held up so far despite the negative revisions to analyst’s earnings estimates.  24:34 - Sam’s specialty at Mill Street research which is tracking analyst earnings revisions.  30:32 - How analyst earning revisions can be used to inform an investment strategy.  35:49 - Investment strategies related to analyst earnings revisions, including the sectors that are seeing better-than-expected revisions.  47:31 - Which sectors have seen the most downward revisions in earnings estimates?  50:06 - Which sectors Sam is most bullish on long term. 53:03 - The indicators Sam is watching that indicator the market may be on an uptrend.  *Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Kyle and the other community members. Check out:  Mill Street Research. Related Episode: Listen to MI255: Navigating Bubble 3.0: Is This Time Different? w/ David Hay, or watch the video. NEW TO THE SHOW? Check out our Millennial Investing Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try Kyle’s favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Fiscal.AI Connect with Sam: Website | Twitter  Connect with Rebecca: Twitter | Instagram Email: Rebecca@theinvestorspodcast.com HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it!  Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

You're listening to TIP.

0:02.6

And so if you find a stock where their earnings revisions are rising and the price momentum

0:06.6

is positive and the valuation is maybe on the lower end of its historical range, then that's

0:11.9

a favorable setup.

0:12.8

That means that investors haven't already kind of assumed that the estimates will rise and

0:16.9

price it all in and that you can buy it at a reasonable price.

0:23.5

On today's episode, I chat with Sam Burns, who is the chief strategist at Mill Street Research.

0:29.9

Sam has more than 20 years of experience as a market strategist providing U.S. and global

0:35.1

investment insights at different Wall Street firms. During this episode,

0:39.6

Sam shares his market outlook for 2023 and explains why the market has held up so far this year

0:46.2

despite the widespread pessimism about the economy, inflation concerns, and earnings being

0:52.3

downgraded negatively by analysts as of this first quarter.

0:56.4

He also covers which sectors have seen the largest positive and negative revisions in their

1:01.8

earnings from analysts and how Sam is using this information in his own investment strategy

1:07.6

and so much more.

1:09.6

If you've been wondering why the market has been performing

1:12.2

so strong this year, despite the negative economic news that has been coming out, then you're

1:17.1

going to want to tune into this episode as Sam breaks down everything for us and gives us his

1:22.4

short-term market outlook for the rest of the year, as well as his long-term thinking. On top of that,

1:27.8

I really enjoyed learning about his investment process and his strategy that combines a top-down approach

1:33.2

that starts with looking at which sectors analysts have upgraded the most, and then incorporates

1:38.4

bottom-up analysis where he then goes in and looks at valuations of companies within this

...

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