MI258: Expect Further Stock Market Declines & A Recession in 2023 w/ Chance Finucane

The Intrinsic Value Podcast - The Investor’s Podcast Network

The Investor's Podcast Network

Business, Education, Investing

4.6 • 592 Ratings

🗓️ 16 February 2023

⏱️ 51 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Rebecca Hotsko chats with Chance Finucane, who is a partner, and Chief Investment Officer at Oxbow Advisors. They discuss Chance’s current outlook for the market and economy for 2023, why he expects a recession sometime in 2023, what’s driving investors’ complacency in the market, and much more! IN THIS EPISODE, YOU’LL LEARN: 00:00 - Intro 02:41 - Why Chance expects a recession sometime in 2023 and the stock market to decline by about 20%. 03:55 - What’s driving investors’ complacency in the market, despite being so pessimistic. 07:43 - What a Fed Pivot means for the stock market and the economy. 10:54 - Which leading indicators Chance is relying on to help inform his investment decisions. 11:51 - What would be the catalyst to cause investors to start selling. 12:52 - Why Chance thinks the defensive sectors are the most overvalued parts of the market still. 24:34 - The sectors that typically outperform coming out of a recession. 24:34 - How much the stock market would drop if earnings downgrade as expected. 26:21 - What Oxbow’s investment process looks like for their high growth equity strategy. 27:58 - Why he thinks earnings estimates are still too high for 2023. 30:20 - Why Google is one of their biggest holdings for their equity strategy and looks attractive at today’s price. 31:32 - Which tech stocks he thinks are undervalued and overvalued at today’s prices. 42:10 - Why Chance is still bullish on energy long term despite recently reducing some exposure to positions. 48:27 - Why he thinks this next decade could be more like the 1970s with waves of inflation. And much, much more! *Disclaimer: Slight timestamp discrepancies may occur due to podcast platform differences. BOOKS AND RESOURCES Join the exclusive TIP Mastermind Community to engage in meaningful stock investing discussions with Kyle and the other community members. Check out: Oxbow Advisors. Related Episode: Listen to MI231: History's Biggest Financial Bubble w/ David Hay, or watch the video. NEW TO THE SHOW? Check out our Millennial Investing Starter Packs. Browse through all our episodes (complete with transcripts) here. Try Robert and Rebecca’s favorite tool for picking stock winners and managing our portfolios: TIP Finance. Enjoy exclusive perks from our favorite Apps and Services. Stay up-to-date on financial markets and investing strategies through our daily newsletter, We Study Markets. Learn how to better start, manage, and grow your business with the best business podcasts. SPONSORS Support our free podcast by supporting our sponsors: Fiscal.AI Connect with Chance: Website | LinkedIn Connect with Rebecca: Twitter | Instagram HELP US OUT! Help us reach new listeners by leaving us a rating and review on Apple Podcasts! It takes less than 30 seconds and really helps our show grow, which allows us to bring on even better guests for you all! Thank you – we really appreciate it! Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices Support our show by becoming a premium member! https://theinvestorspodcastnetwork.supportingcast.fm

Transcript

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0:00.0	You're listening to TIP. The best times to buy Amazon is when the next 12 months of free cash flow that is expected to be generated, it's trading at a 4% yield on that. Well, to get to a 4% yield, Amazon would have to fall by about another third to the high 60s. So there's still downside left in Amazon. And at that point we would reevaluate it and
0:22.4	potentially add it back into the portfolio. But at this time, we'd think that Alphabet,
0:27.8	Microsoft, and even Apple are better places to be rather than Amazon.
0:34.2	On today's episode, I'm joined by Chance Funnuchin.
0:38.3	Chance is a partner and chief investment officer at Oxpo Advisors.
0:43.1	During this episode, Chance walks us through his current outlook for the stock market for
0:47.9	2023 and explains why he thinks we could see further corrections of about 20% for the market
0:54.1	and why a recession is
0:55.9	very likely to happen at some point this year. He also shares which leading indicators he
1:01.6	tracks to help determine where we are in the market cycle, along with which parts of the market
1:06.5	chance believes are still the most overvalued and what are the sectors that typically will perform
1:13.4	best coming out of a recession. We also dive into Oxbow's long-term high-growth equity strategy
1:20.2	and he shares his conviction behind Google, which is one of their biggest holdings and he discusses
1:26.2	why he thinks it looks attractive at today's
1:28.8	price, along with his thoughts on Microsoft, Amazon, and Apple, and so much more.
1:35.2	I really enjoyed today's conversation with Chance. He gives us a very timely update on what to
1:41.5	expect in 2023, and even though it's quite a bleak scenario, he shares some
1:46.9	insights into sectors and companies he's most excited for when better buying opportunities arise
1:52.9	and just generally leaves us with some great advice on how we can best position ourselves
1:57.9	even in a recession. So without further delay, I really hope you enjoyed
2:02.6	today's conversation with Chance Funukin.
2:06.2	You're listening to Millennial Investing by the Investors Podcast Network, where your hosts, Robert
	...

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