Melt up to Melt Down

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business News, Business, Investing, News

4.1 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 5 January 2023

⏱️ 36 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

U.S. stocks are down after new employment and jobless claims data released this morning indicated a still-resilient labor market. Private-sector employment rose by 235,000 in December, according to the latest ADP employment report, well above expectations. Annual pay for “job-stayers” rose 7.3%. Meanwhile, new jobless claims came in below estimates. On today’s show, Michael Gayed, the portfolio manager at Toroso Investments and editor of The Lead-Lag Report, joins Andreas Steno Larsen to discuss what signals caused him to switch from calling for a “melt-up” to an “imminent crash” at the end of 2022, and where he believes market conditions are pointing next. Plus, we hear from David Higgins about the possibility of a 2023 recession and why it might last longer than many expect. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	This episode is brought to you by London Business School.
0:03.8	Looking to accelerate your business, or understand the opportunities in AI or ESG,
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0:18.6	subject experts and industry insiders,
0:21.4	look for podcasts from London Business School.
0:23.8	Navigate the now and be prepared for what's next with London Business School.
0:31.0	Good afternoon everyone and welcome to the real vision daily briefing.
0:40.4	I'm Andreas Steno from real vision sending to you live Thursday,
0:44.4	the fifth of January.
0:46.0	We are still digesting the meeting minutes out of the Federal Reserve yesterday,
0:51.8	but we have quite some interesting market action to unpack again today.
0:56.0	And we are going to ask the question,
0:58.0	are we going from a milled up to a milled down?
1:01.2	And I'm as confused as Mr. Jack Sparrow on the mean here.
1:06.8	We have a great guest today, a guy that I've known for a while.
1:10.4	And he's gone from expecting a milled up,
1:13.0	and he was actually right about that to now expecting a milled down.
1:17.2	Mr. Michael Guy at the portfolio manager at Tarroso Investment.
1:20.6	Great to see you again, my friend.
1:22.0	I'm a big fan of Jack Sparrow, but I'm more a fan of you.
	...

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