Here's daily briefing for Saturday, August 3rd.

Today on Forbes, meet the 26-year-old, building a billion-dollar prediction marketplace.

What are the chances that Vice President Kamla Harris will defeat former President Trump in November?

On a blockchain-based website called Polymarket,

Harris's chances, according to the thousands betting, as of Thursday, are put at 44%,

while Trumps are at 54%, with Michelle Obama and R.F.K. Jr. at about 1%.

Will J.D. Vance be replaced as Trump's VP nominee?

A $100 bet will return $1,000 if Vance bows out.

Welcome to the future of betting markets, where nearly anything can be wagered on,

from Bitcoin's peak price in 2024

to the speed at which Trump and Biden climb stairs,

to the sex of Haley and Justin Bieber's new baby.

On Polymarket, some $472 million

is currently being wagered on the outcome of the presidential election in November.

Never mind that in the United States, betting on the outcome of elections is prohibited,

according to the Commodities and Futures Trading Commission, which deems it against the public interest.

Polymarket, whose headquarters is in New York City, is a prediction market phenom,

thanks largely to the world's current obsession with American politics.

Launched in 2020, Polymarket has already surpassed

650 million dollars in trading volume this year,

with nearly $300 million in July alone, according to data from

Dune Analytics.

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