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The Michael Berry Show

MB Explains Why He Is Optimistic About The Future

The Michael Berry Show

KTRH

News, Politics, Society & Culture

4.82.3K Ratings

🗓️ 11 July 2023

⏱️ 8 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

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0:00.0

So I get an email, I'm sorry, a text, which I hate text, I like emails, but that's what happened.

0:09.0

From Eddie Martini earlier this morning.

0:12.0

And he says, give me one reason why you're optimistic about the back half of 2023.

0:19.0

And I knew that that means he has a sales meeting with the entirety of the I Heart sales staff this morning.

0:27.0

And he's looking for something to pep him up.

0:32.0

And so I pulled up the forward yield curve, which I just happened to have been looking at last night.

0:38.0

And I took a shot of that, which is basically what interest rates,

0:45.0

treasuries and those sorts of things are going to be doing for the future.

0:51.0

And my real estate buddies who do real estate deals, use the forward yield curve,

0:57.0

it's not necessarily perfectly accurate, but it's a pretty good indicator.

1:03.0

And it will tell you, I mean, you're talking to people who are, who are Federal Reserve governors,

1:11.0

getting their opinion to help calculate this, this forward yield curve.

1:17.0

And so if a guy is pricing a deal, and he's going to have his interest rate float,

1:26.0

and he's going to structure it such that he's going to tie that down in six months or a year,

1:31.0

he'd like to know where the interest rate is.

1:34.0

Because the difference between, and I'll just pick numbers,

1:40.0

a 3% interest rate on a deal and a 7% interest rate on a deal,

1:45.0

is a dramatically different deal.

1:48.0

And you probably gotten tired of hearing me say this because I get frustrated with people,

1:52.0

and I know that if I'm hearing it in dinner conversations,

1:56.0

and I'm reading it in emails, then a lot of other people are going through this and not learning it.

2:04.0

This is my problem, is that we put people through 12 years of public school,

...

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