Hey, good morning, Playbookers on Rookumon, it's Monday.

The midterms aren't expected to be too kind to Democrats, so here's a question.

Can anything change that trajectory?

It's your Politico Playbook Daily Briefing.

A president's first midterm election is both an enormous story and completely anticlimactic.

It's major news because there's almost always a dramatic shift away from the President's party.

It's anti-climactic because it's one of the most predictable events in American politics.

So, can anything change that projected trajectory for Democrats?

Some theories have come and gone.

President Joe Biden's leadership rallying Europe against

Russia's aggression in Ukraine has had no effect on his approval. The news that the Supreme Court

is on the cusp of overturning Roe v. Wade has not yet helped him either. Democrats are still

clinging to a few potential developments that they hope could turn things around. One, an actual

decision from the Supreme Court that makes the reality of state abortion

bans more acutely felt. Two, passage of a new version of built back better. Three, the upcoming

January 6th committee hearings that highlight the issue of Trump and the Juppie's efforts to overturn

the 2020 elections, and at least on the Senate side, four, the emergence of unelectable Republican

nominees in key states. But history is not on Biden Senate side, for the emergence of unelectable Republican nominees in key states.

But history is not on Biden's side. In fact, voters may have already made up their minds.

That is at least the argument from Doug Sosnik in his latest memo being shared first with

the playbook audience. You can read the full thing over at Politico.com slash playbook, but a quick

summary.

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