Welcome to Thoughts on the Market, I'm Matt Hornbach, Global Head of macro strategy

for Morgan Stanley.

Along with my colleagues bringing you a variety of perspectives, I'll be talking about global

macro trends and how investors can interpret these trends for rates and currency markets.

It's Tuesday, August 31st at 11.30 AM in New York.

Well, the end of August usually brings with it the start of school in the U.S., and for

children who have to go back to school, the end of summer.

The end of August also brings with it the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium.

It's an event held by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City and brings together dozens

of central bankers, policy makers, academics and economists each year to discuss important

issues facing world economies.

The main event at the symposium was Fed Chair Powell's speech on monetary policy in

the time of COVID.

Going into the speech, investors were looking for information on the timing and pace of

asset purchase tapering, as well as the timing of rate hikes that might follow.

Powell emphasized that the bar to hike rates is higher than the bar to taper asset purchases.

It's a distinction that most investors had already been aware of, but were comforted

to hear Powell confirm it nevertheless.

It's also a distinction that the Fed tried to get across in 2013, though unsuccessfully.

At the time, then Chair Bernanke suggested that tapering could begin in the next few meetings.

However, that was quite a few meetings earlier than most in the market had expected.

That followed was a dramatic rise in treasury yields and a tightening in overall financial

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