Welcome to Real Vision Daily Briefing. It's Thursday, April 7, 2020-22. We are here live in Bitcoin, Miami. Bitcoin 2022 conference, I should say. If I could turn the camera around, you could see we're literally right in the middle of the hallway here. I'm Ash Bennington joined by Darius Dale. Darius, welcome.

Ash, this is the Real Vision Daily Briefing version of the Oklahoma drill. You're kind of right in the middle. It's the run and gun version, man.

Exactly.

I know, man.

So, Darius, man, I'm down here in Miami. I am literally eyebrow deep in all things Bitcoin. You have to be my macro and capital market Sherpa, man. Tell me what's going on. Obviously interesting stuff coming out of the Fed minutes.

What's on your dashboard right now? Oh, what's on my dashboard? I mean, they did it again. The Fed, you know, so every time the Fed needs to make it incrementally hawkish pivot or actually you can say eagerly dovish pivot as well going back to 2019 May 2019.

They pushed Jim Bullard out of the door and having say something that's pretty aggressive in either direction. And so the latest update from him today.

I mean, I don't think they, I don't think these guys, I mean, obviously the each of the state, the Fed president, you know, the president's have some leeway what they say and what they believe.

But ultimately, I do believe it's acting as an institution and clearly Bullard's commentary has led the sort of sea change and fed policy over the past kind of four to six months.

So this comments say they're pretty aggressive. I mean, let me let's unpack it. He thinks that he wants to see a Fed funds rate at 3.5% by year end that compares to the dot plot.

We just got a couple of weeks ago for 1.875%. So that's nearly a double in terms of what they're expecting. And oh, by the way, this is before we get Mark CPI next Tuesday.

That's probably going to surprise the upside and continue accelerating. So that's obviously a pretty interesting commentary.

Well, the reason I think it's most interesting is because Bullard also followed that up by saying, Hey, the Fed can do this because the labor market is so robust and will likely continue improving throughout that entire process.

So these guys are really gung ho about the sort of coincidence, the lagging nature of the strength of the economy and really kind of having blinders are blinders on with respect to the fort looking outlook.

But Jerry, let me play devil's advocate. We just got our first real cut. And now we're talking about getting to 3.5% of the year. Is there any way that that actually happens?

No, no, definitely not. And the reason I say definitely not. You go to look in our work here at 42 macro. Our models are projecting a sort of faster pace of deceleration, starting in the kind of meant to like you to relate to you, rather.

At the time we get into the summer months and into the fall, the economy vary not only just visibly slowing, but visibly slowing at a pretty sharp pace.

The kind of pace that causes crashes in stock markets, crashes in cryptocurrency crash and risk assets broadly. And ultimately we think tightening of financial conditions associated with that will eventually cause the fed to back off.

But we certainly know we're near the kinds of levels of pain that we need to see for that to occur.

This is this exactly the challenge that you see with tightening in terms of getting behind the curve when you're tightening into a recessionary cycle already. Isn't that sort of that the sort of.

Reconcilable double binds that we're in here. Yeah, so the fence policy mistake didn't start recently. It started, you know, you can make the case that it started over a year ago.

With the fiscal authority past that sort of last fiscal package, the fiscal stimulus fact is the very ill advised fiscal state of the final COVID relief bill, you know, pumping an additional $1,000 into the economy.

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