4.6 • 1.3K Ratings
🗓️ 5 September 2024
⏱️ 13 minutes
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0:00.0 | Did you see the number of rate cuts that the market's forecasting this year now? |
0:04.4 | Five? Four? Four? Four. It was three now it's four. |
0:08.1 | I saw earlier today which is great. They say September is gonna be be the first cut, the Fed is signaling to it. I think this is actually going to cause marketing become more expensive and competitive over the next call it a few years. We're going to start seeing more of an influx because |
0:24.8 | money's just going to become cheaper. |
0:26.4 | You know what I looked I asked Chad Chippee did it I was like hey so whenever the |
0:30.8 | Fed pivots which is what they're doing right now, where the cutting rates instead of raising them. |
0:34.3 | So this is a pivot. How, in the last 50 years, what percent of the time do we go into recession when the fed pivots? |
0:41.7 | And it's an 80% of the time. |
0:43.6 | So 80% of the time, by the way, |
0:45.3 | that's like having pocket aces in Texas hold them. |
0:47.9 | You have 80% chance of winning, right? |
0:49.9 | So that's pretty damn high. |
0:51.7 | That is high. |
0:52.4 | Yeah. And when they call a recession, keep it. that's high. high. |
0:53.0 | And when they call a recession, keep in mind that it's already happened. |
0:56.7 | They call a recession after it's happened. |
0:59.0 | The data is in. |
1:00.0 | They don't call a recession right when it's happening. |
1:02.2 | And you know, with all the revising that they're doing with the jobs numbers and also, |
1:06.1 | you know they're revising, I think they revise some other stuff in terms of like revenues. |
1:10.0 | I forgot what it was, but I know they revised something else so |
1:13.4 | I don't know what this is I'm not economists I'm not telling anyone I'm right or wrong |
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