Welcome to Closing Bell on this first full day of trading in the second half of the year.

I'm Mike Santoli in for Scott Wopner here at Post 9 at the New York Stock Exchange.

This make or break hour begins with investors struggling to sort out mixed messages from the minutes

at the latest Fed meeting. The major index is churning with moderate declines most of the day as small

cap stocks pull back a bit more sharply. Later on the show, top technician Chris Farron of

Stratigus is charting out the second half. He reveals what he thinks could

determine the road ahead for stocks. But first our talk of the tape. Ken stocks

make their peace with rising bond yields and further fed tightening.

And what does it all mean for stock market leadership?

Here to discuss that is Adam Parker, founder and CEO of Trivariate research and a C NBC contributor Adam good to see you

Thanks for having me. So we want to start from the top down here before we get into

kind of what the market was really up to in the first step I know you've done some work on that

Fed minutes kind of give

us the message we got from Powell and the press conference of. We paused. Majority, of course, unanimous saying

we're not going to do a rate hike this time but we're leaning

in that direction we're going to try to be more patient about it.

But then you had some people saying we still think the economy is vulnerable so you have

these kind of push-pull dynamics within the Fed you have Treasury yields. You have

Treasury yields, the 10-year, you know, almost to the high as it was before

S. V. 2-year as well.

Is it a comfortable level for the equity market?

You know, it's a very strong statistically significant relationship between Fed Fund futures and

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