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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Market Froth, Anti-Bubbles, and the Consequences of Unparalleled Monetary Easing ( w/ Diego Parrilla )

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business, Investing, News, Business News

4.11.1K Ratings

🗓️ 1 June 2021

⏱️ 76 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Real Vision Live Replay: Diego Parrilla, portfolio manager at Quadriga Asset Managers and the author of "The Anti-Bubbles," weighs in on the ongoing conversation around bubbles in this interview with Real Vision CEO and co-founder Raoul Pal. Parrilla goes in-depth on where he thinks markets are providing the most opportunity as well as where they're unveiling risks, and he breaks down his unique portfolio management style to navigate the current environment. He also considers whether monetary policy has reached its limits in the midst of unparalleled monetary easing from global central banks. Parrilla and Pal also will be answering questions from the audience. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

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0:38.1

Diego, I can't think of a better person to pick their brains on about bubbles than you.

0:45.1

So welcome back. Thank you so much. I'm trying to get my head around all of this.

0:52.0

Give me what you think is going on right now. You and I last spoke and the world was a different

0:59.2

place or the asset markets are a different place. The world's roughly the same.

1:04.4

And you've got a deep understanding of these bubbles. What do you think is going on? What's your

1:08.8

framework here? Well, I would look back into the past decade and I think I like to summarise it

1:17.2

in one line, which is the transformation of risk-free interest into interest-free risk.

1:26.1

And you think about what happened ever since you were awake and you know we're once

1:30.7

upon a time we had whether it's the boomed or treasury is paying 5-6% and there was this great

1:38.6

concept called risk-free interest. You know we had it in the textbooks and that meant that you could

1:44.4

effectively put your money without any risk earned your 5-6% which was in nominal terms.

1:53.9

Inflation was low so you were earning some very nice and real yields and in balance when you

2:01.0

think about how you value an asset you were discounting things at 5% plus credit spread.

2:07.5

What we've seen in this transition is right to zero negative. What it means is the present value

2:15.5

first of all of course it's nowhere to park your mind. So risk-free is gone and that has effectively

2:22.0

forced us, savers and investors to take more risk. The first I mentioned and most obvious is

2:29.3

duration. So you start out with your bond, you have to go 10 years, 20 years and now even 30 years

2:36.4

at deeply negative, which is just an operation. Of course when you need to go so long

...

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