Market and Inflation Outlook and a Shocking NYC Victory

Bloomberg Surveillance

Bloomberg

News, Investing, Business News, Business

4 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 25 June 2025

⏱️ 29 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyJune 25th, 2025
Featuring:
1) Brian Levitt, Global Market Strategist at Invesco, joins to discuss his outlook for equities and the economy in the second half of 2025. Fed Chair Jay Powell told lawmakers that if inflation pressures remain contained, the Fed will cut rates sooner rather than later, but didn't point to a particular meeting, and markets are telling Powell that he will be lowering rates more quickly than he portrayed.
2) Fred Neuman, Chief Asia Economist at HSBC, joins for a discussion on how an oil spike could lead to an inflation spike, and why the Israel-Iran conflict's impact on oil is crucial to China and Asian economies. It comes as President Trump announced on social media that China can continue to purchase oil from Iran, potentially undermining years of US sanctions on Iran. The announcement surprised oil traders and officials in Trump's own government, and it is unclear how the US Treasury and State Department will interpret and enforce related sanctions.
3) Ali Vaez, Iran Project Director of the Crisis Group's Iran Project, joins to discuss the conflicting views about the whether the US destroyed Iran's nuclear capabilities and whether there is any room for diplomacy in the Israel-Iran conflict. President Trump disputed an intelligence report that found the airstrikes he ordered on Iran had only a limited impact on its nuclear program. The ceasefire between Israel and Iran remains fragile, with a focus on nuclear diplomacy and assessments of how much damage was done to Iran's nuclear program.
4) Alicia Levine, Head of Investment Strategy and Equities at BNY, joins to talk about volatility in equities and offers her S&P target. Traders are shifting their focus to the US economy and how trade risks and fiscal pressures could affect corporate earnings and growth, with a fragile ceasefire between Israel and Iran appearing to hold.

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0:49.6	This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcasts.
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1:01.5	It has been too long. Brian Levitt joins us right now with Invesco with a really interesting
1:06.1	and holistic view of tying it together to have confidence to invest, Partridge from the University of Michigan.
1:14.2	Can you write a mid-year review right now? June 30 beckons, July 1st, beckons? Is it possible to do an
1:21.1	Invesco mid-year review? Yeah, I would say the mid-year review is set up for the economy was good.
1:26.6	We got policy uncertainty.
1:29.4	Policy uncertainty got worse than it was expected, led to some recession fears,
1:34.7	and then policymakers generally backing off at least pauses with regards to tariffs,
1:41.7	Federal Reserve, perhaps sounding maybe a little bit more dovish.
1:45.5	And so the market is now set up for expectation of incrementally continued improvements with
1:53.4	regards to policy. How about the Federal Reserve? What kind of policy should we expect from
1:57.9	the Federal Reserve here today? It feels like the economic data that
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