The Mark Simone Show.

On 710 W.O.R.

Well, Jake Novak, the great columnist and the producer and one of the smartest guys around.

Jake Novak, it's on Twitter.

Make sure you follow them.

It's Jake, Jake, and Y at Twitter.

Great stuff there.

Jake, Jake, NY at Twitter.

Jake Novak, how you doing?

I'm doing well. Like most people, I'm awaiting today's big Fed decision. I think the Fed is going to continue getting things wrong. But, you know, I'll hold out a little bit of hope for a miracle, I guess. Some people think they might pause. They might not raise the rates. That's probably the wrong thing, so maybe that's what they'll do.

What do you think?

Yeah, there's three possibilities.

One is they'll raise rates and raise them by a whole half point, just like they've been doing every time for several months now.

I think that's a very low possibility now.

The second, which is the most likely thing, is that they'll raise it by a quarter point and probably say something along the lines of, well, you know, we're watching this banking thing, and if it gets worse, we'll take a pause, but not yet. And the third option is that they don't raise race and they say, oh, we're taking a pause now. I think most likely they're going to raise a quarter point because the Fed really only knows how to do one thing. And that's either lower interest rates or increase them. And as long as they think there's a reason to do either one, they're going to do it. That's what they know how to do. And like I said, I don't think that they've done a great job in curbing inflation. I don't think the reason why inflation has slowed has anything to do with them. I think it should have been slowed by more anyway. And second, I think they've actually

increased inflation in some sectors in some ways. And also, I think that what the Fed could really

do to be helpful, as if Jay Powell, instead of burying it in a paragraph in a written report,

if he said, look, we cannot be the only people, we people, speaking of the Fed, we can't be the only people trying to curb inflation. There's got to be a lot of other parts of the government and the business world working on this and the government helping the business while getting out of their way. And if you would make that kind of a statement, that would be great. But that would be expecting someone in Washington to admit they're not all powerful.

And I haven't ever met anyone in Washington like that.

This whole raising the rate now, I mean, that's the tools that you, but isn't that kind of outdated?

It does really apply to today's economy?

I think it's really outdated.

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