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The Interview

Margaret Heffernan: Is it time to embrace uncertainty?

The Interview

BBC

News, Government, Politics

4.3537 Ratings

🗓️ 23 March 2020

⏱️ 24 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

The worldwide spread of coronavirus and its significant negative impact on the global economy represents a powerful illustration of the perils of forecasting. Countries in lockdown, financial markets in turmoil; this isn’t the way 2020 was supposed to pan out. HARDtalk's Stephen Sackur interviews acclaimed writer and businesswoman Margaret Heffernan, who has just published a book on the fallacies of forecasting.

Transcript

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0:00.0

You're listening to a podcast from the BBC World Service. This is Hard Talk with me, Stephen Sacker.

0:06.7

Thanks for downloading this edition of the program. I do hope you enjoy it.

0:11.4

My guest today hasn't just built her own successful media and business career. She's drawn lessons from her experience and distilled them into a hugely successful series of books

0:22.6

on business and organisational culture. Margaret Heffernan's latest work, uncharted,

0:29.0

how to map the future, addresses our contemporary preoccupation with predictions and forecasts.

0:36.7

To be blunt, Ms Heffernan thinks much of the forecasting we do,

0:41.0

increasingly driven by artificial intelligence and algorithms, is counterproductive,

0:46.8

driven by a misguided effort to find certainty in an uncertain world. It's a message with

0:53.2

particular resonance right now. The global spread of

0:56.6

coronavirus is currently presenting the entire world with unforeseen challenges which have put entire

1:03.2

countries into lockdown and threaten the stability of financial markets. Her critique of

1:09.0

organizational and business culture doesn't even end there. In other work,

1:13.1

she confronts the willful blindness that afflicts many organizations and keeps their failings hidden.

1:19.0

She questions the assumptions that we make about the efficiency of competition. All in all,

1:24.6

is it time we embraced uncertainty and abandoned our desire for control?

1:31.3

Well, Margaret Heffernan joins me now.

1:33.1

Welcome to Hard Talk.

1:34.7

Thank you.

1:35.0

I think we would all like to believe that as human knowledge expands, particularly with technology,

1:43.1

our ability to forecast the future accurately improves.

1:48.8

Is it your contention that that is not true?

1:51.8

It isn't my contention that it isn't true.

...

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