Making Sense of June's CPI

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

News, Business News, Investing, Business

4.1 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 14 July 2021

⏱️ 34 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

DB-Jul 13,2021: Tommy Thornton, president at Hedge Fund Telemetry, joins the Daily Briefing to discuss the CPI print released today, equity pricing, and earnings season. Thornton, along with Real Vision’s Ash Bennington, examines the effect that the CPI print will have on the FED’s dovish commitment to the economy. Additionally, the pair looks at how different markets are reacting to the high consumer price index figure and if sentiment is changing towards inflation. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0	It's Tuesday, July 13, 2021. I'm Ash Bennington. Welcome to the real vision, Daily Briefing.
0:17.9	Here's some of the stories we're looking at. CPIU consumer price index for all urban consumers
0:23.2	is up a red hot, unadjusted 5.4% year-over-year that 0.9% for June. Is it low-base effect?
0:33.6	Is it transitory? We dig in to find out. US equity markets shrugged off this morning CPI data
0:40.8	up at record highs, then cooled down in the afternoon. There's a 30-year bond option to talk about
0:46.4	in there. Looks like the S&P is still bouncing around a little, but settling down looks like
0:52.8	43-69 off about 0.35% on the day after lots of strume and drong. Finally, it's earnings season.
1:04.4	The estimates look blistering Q221 earnings growth rate for the S&P 564% based on estimates from
1:13.3	fact set. If they match or beat those numbers, it will be the hottest quarter since Q4 2009.
1:21.4	Here to talk it all over with us once again, Tommy Thornton. Tom, welcome back.
1:26.8	Ash, great to be back. Love coming on the Daily Briefing on Tuesdays.
1:33.5	Well, it's always a pleasure to have you here. We were talking a little bit off-camera.
1:37.8	Lots of stuff happening in this market. It seems like a Tommy Tuesday is always a busy day.
1:42.6	What are you looking about? How are you contextualizing all of this information?
1:49.6	We had a few different dramas happen today. We had the, first of all, the CPI came out and I was
1:58.1	thinking, this was my thesis going into it today and sort of partially worked. I bought some banks.
2:06.2	I figured, I don't like the way the charts necessarily look, but I felt like there was enough
2:12.7	evidence that they could push a little higher for trades. CPI came out and the earnings were fine.
2:19.7	Goldman and JP Morgan, they were fine. There were some squishy thing. Lending stills kind of,
2:24.4	but CPI came out. It was just a ripping hot number and it reversed everything in the markets.
2:33.0	Then the bond market didn't get the CPI numbers. It just ignored it. It was like you didn't
2:42.2	notice, but the front end of the curve, the curve rates went up and then the back end long end
	...

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