Hello, fellow Robo Capital, soap, you're well. So I want to talk about who is right on the economy.

Is it the mainstream media, the politicians, the central planners, the authoritarians, or you,

the average Joe and Jane. Because I've had a lot of discussions with people who actually believe that there's almost a 0% probability we go into a recession.

Good friends of mine. And people that I respect, smart people. But none of them, none of them, even the people that believe there's a very low probability that we go into a recession, let's say, in 2025, they still admit there is a huge bifurcation between the people with assets and the people with no assets.

Let's just say the top 5% and then the bottom 95%. And I think we're living in this bizarro world where somehow the U.S.

economy is propped up by just simply one thing, maybe two things.

Asset prices.

Asset prices, maybe you throw in government spending there.

But just do that thought experiment. Let's just assume for a

moment that housing prices went down by 50%. Let's assume for a moment the stock market went down by 50%.

What do you think the U.S. economy would look like? And I mean, we go back to the dot-com bust, right?

When we had a huge, what they would call a balance sheet recession, right?

Now, housing didn't go down by 50%, but we had the stock market just get obliterated.

And we did have a recession, but was it catastrophic?

Not really.

But fast forward to today, and I think the majority of you watching this video right now,

would assume, or your base case would be if we had a similar type of balance sheet recession, especially if you include housing, it would not look like the dot com recession.

It would look something like the 1930s. And I would probably agree with you, absent the government and the

Fed, whatever their response mechanism would be. But you just keep getting beat over the head. So no matter

how many of your friends are losing their job, no matter how much purchasing power you have

lost since 2019, no matter how many of your family members say that, you know what, times are getting tougher.

It's harder to put food on the table. It's harder to put a roof over my head. My insurance costs

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