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The Ben Shapiro Show

Mailbag Sunday

The Ben Shapiro Show

The Daily Wire

News, News Commentary

4.4152.4K Ratings

🗓️ 10 December 2023

⏱️ 8 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Listen in as I answer your questions from The Ben Shapiro Show mailbag. To get your question answered, you must become a DailyWire+ member: https://utm.io/ueSEj Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Hey, folks, it's a Sunday. That means it's time to jump into the Ben Shapiro Show mailbag.

0:03.9

You actually have to be a subscriber over at DailyWirePlus.com in order to have your question answered in the mailbag. Caleb says, I recognize getting accurate polling is next to impossible. I'm curious to hear your opinion on whether an age and or demographic gap is skewing the numbers right now, particularly on the conservative side related to Trump's wild lead. I'm a 30-year-old to Sanchez-Haley leaner.

0:21.8

Like most people my age,

0:22.7

I don't answer unknown phone calls,

0:23.9

I don't respond to polling texts, right now, particularly on the conservative side related to Trump's wild lead. I'm a 30-year-old Desanis Haley-Leaner.

0:21.8

Like most people my age, I don't answer unknown phone calls. I don't respond to polling texts or emails. I'm certainly not answering polls on social media or legacy news sites. Do you think some of Trump's massive alleged lead over the other candidates is that his older and more likely to pick up the phone or respond to a social poll or legacy media. and two, just louder and skewing the polls as a result.

0:38.6

So, you know, I'm not a big fan of quote unquote unskewing polls. I remember we did a lot of this in 2012. So there's a lot of looking at the sort of internals of polls, how they were constituted, what was the breakdown of Democrats versus Republicans, how many people were actually being polled, landlines versus not landlines and all the rest. This is why I tend to use polling averages. The reality is that there is no poll that has been done nationally that has

0:59.1

anyone in a close second to Donald Trump. Everyone is far behind Donald Trump in every poll.

1:04.3

When that's the case, you have to assume he has a major lead and that it's not all crap.

1:08.2

You just have to assume that going in. And I think that that's right.

1:16.7

The same thing happens to be true in Iowa. In Iowa, the latest polls, have Trump up at least 20 points.

1:23.8

Iowa civics has Trump up 36. Trafalgar group has Trump up 23. Now, could DeSantis pull something out in Iowa? Yeah, it's a caucus state. So that state is closer than it looks.

1:37.4

How about New Hampshire? If you move forward to New Hampshire, all of the polls, Washington Post Monmouth, CNN, they all have Trump up by at least 20 points.

1:45.1

The closest second is Haley, followed by Christi, followed by DeSantis. Now, if DeSantis wins Iowa, and let's say that Haley finishes third in Iowa after Trump or something, would she get a boost? She might get a boost. Could she win New Hampshire?

1:49.7

I mean, it's possible? Is it highly plausible? Yeah, who knows? But here's the thing. Even if, let's say,

1:55.7

Desantis wins Iowa, Haley wins New Hampshire and South Carolina, let's say, for the sake of argument,

2:01.1

who has a path to the actual nomination that way?

2:04.7

And Trump is still going to win places like California and New York in all likelihood.

2:08.6

So I'm not in the business of unscuing polls anymore because I just don't think that you can do it

2:13.3

with a lot of, with a lot of accuracy.

2:16.3

So I hesitate to suggest that Trump's lead is not real at this point.

2:21.5

Steve says, hey, Ben, happy to be a subscriber to Daily Wire, since the Eighth Amendment in the Bill of Rights,

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