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Macro Voices

MacroVoices #484 Rory Johnston: Crude Oil Forward Curve Conundrum

Macro Voices

Hedge Fund Manager Erik Townsend

Business, Investing, Business:investing

4.83.4K Ratings

🗓️ 12 June 2025

⏱️ 70 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

MacroVoices Erik Townsend & Patrick Ceresna welcome, Rory Johnston. They’ll discuss Rory’s view that the WTI forward curve has taken an unprecedented and bizarre shape, and much more. https://bit.ly/4jSlHOz   🔻Download Big Picture Trading Chartbook 📈📉: https://bit.ly/4kWdMk2   ✅Sign up for a FREE 14-day trial at Big Picture Trading: https://bit.ly/4d1fcag  🔴 Subscribe to Patrick’s Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/@Patrick_Ceresna   🔴 Subscribe to Erik's Substack: https://eriktownsend.substack.com/   🔴 Check out Energy Transition Crisis on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@EnergyTransitionCrisis1   Please visit our website https://www.macrovoices.com to register your free account to gain access to supporting materials

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

This is Macro Voices, the free weekly financial podcast targeting professional finance, high net worth individuals, family offices, and other sophisticated investors.

0:18.9

Macrovoices is all about the brightest minds in the world of finance

0:22.6

and macroeconomics telling it like it is, bullish or bearish, no holds barred. Now, here are your

0:29.2

hosts, Eric Townsend and Patrick Suresna. Macrovoices episode 484 was produced on June 12th, 2025. I'm Eric Townsend. Commodity

0:42.5

context founder Rory Johnston returns as this week's feature interview guest to talk all things crude oil.

0:49.0

Rory says the WTI forward curve has taken an unprecedented and bizarre shape.

0:55.7

Regular listeners will recall that I have a trade on long Z5 short M6 time spreads

1:02.1

for the exact reason that I noticed the exact same anomaly that Rory noticed in the evolution

1:09.0

of the WTI forward curve.

1:11.5

So are you ready for the big reveal?

1:14.0

What's the market telling us with this unprecedented inflection point recently forming

1:19.2

around the start of 2026 where the WTI futures forward curve flips suddenly from steep

1:25.6

backwardation to moderate contango? Listeners, are you ready to hear from

1:30.1

true crude oil market experts and veterans what this term structure signal means to the market?

1:36.4

Well, then you better tune into a different podcast because Rory and I don't have a goddamn clue.

1:42.4

We're both stumped by this one, but we'll be happy to throw you a few educated guesses

1:47.4

in this week's feature interview.

1:49.8

The interview was recorded on Tuesday before speculation that a military strike on Iran could be imminent,

1:57.7

which spiked crude prices, almost another $4 higher on Wednesday during regular trading,

2:04.3

and almost $5 if you include the spike that happened just after the 6 p.m. futures reopen.

2:10.8

So my guess is that by the time you hear this podcast, either there will or will not have been a very significant military strike on Iran

2:19.6

and crude oil will either be retracing to the downside if there was not or probably even

...

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