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Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Macro: A Framework for Truth ( w/ Raoul Pal & Lyn Alden )

Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Real Vision

Business News, News, Investing, Business

4.1 • 1.1K Ratings

🗓️ 10 January 2021

⏱️ 62 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Recorded on 18 Aug 2020. The unprecedented nature of everything going on today has made topics such as the viability of fiat currencies, USD reserve status, Bitcoin, monetary/fiscal policy, and precious metals the talk of the town. Everyone is now wondering what these things mean and how they will impact their lives moving forward. No doubt, questions abound. However, by using macroeconomics as a lens, one can begin to understand not just what these seemingly complicated things are, but how their interrelated nature can impact the world around us. Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy recently did an Expert View where she laid out many of her positions on these concepts and how they fit into her strategy. For this segment of Real Vision Live, we’ve invited her back to sit down with Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, for a macro masterclass where they will dive into these different areas in an attempt to understand where we are, and more importantly, where we may end up. Learn more about your ad choices. Visit podcastchoices.com/adchoices

Transcript

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0:00.0

And then welcome back to Real Vision. It's the first time you and I have actually sat down to chat.

0:14.0

So I'm really looking forward to it.

0:16.0

Yeah, nice to have me. It's great to meet you.

0:18.0

Can you give people a bit of background about yourself, just so those who aren't familiar with you know a bit more about you?

0:25.8

Yeah sure my background blends kind of engineering and finance so I've been investing since I was like you know really young but my career path started and out in engineering and then I

0:35.2

graduated shifted more towards kind of engineering management and engineering the

0:38.9

managing the finances of engineering facility while shifting more and more into applying that kind of

0:44.0

quantitative background to finance investing. So that's kind of how I approach things in a

0:49.2

pretty quantitative way. And so what do you do now exactly?

0:53.0

So I run Lynnalln.com, which is a research firm, so I have a free newsletter and then I have a paid service that, you know, it's kind of, um, it has a blend of, uh, you know,'s kind of um it has a blend of you know kind of high net worth retail

1:05.9

investors like retirees and then all up to the professional investors so kind of a

1:10.4

lot of it kind of take some of the complex kind of macro topics that might be more covered in institutional research and then distills them for a broader audience. That's kind of the main focus.

1:19.0

So how did you get into macro to start with what we're out of engineering which is a detailed discipline process into macro which is a broader process how why did that happen?

1:30.3

It was a gradual transition because so I actually started more in individual stock analysis and I still do that because I feel like the bottom-up analysis and the top-down analysis they help inform each other. So sometimes the bottom level analysis can inform my view of the top as well.

1:46.4

But I started out in the individual stocks, but I you know over the years I realized that we're in a very

1:51.4

macro heavy environment.

1:53.0

It's kind of, you know, I referred to as the end of a long-term debt cycle or, you know, fourth turning.

1:58.4

You can kind of call it different ways, kind of a large kind of transition.

2:03.3

And so I realize that, you know, the individual stock analysis

2:06.4

is only capturing a part of the picture

2:07.9

and that I really have to look at macro

2:10.2

and to kind of move assets around kind of big, you know,

...

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