Lots More With Skanda Amarnath on This Moment in Macro

Odd Lots

Bloomberg

News, Investing, Business, News Commentary, Business News

4.4 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 15 August 2025

⏱️ 33 minutes

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Summary

Right now, you could make a good argument that inflation is still too hot, and that with the stock market booming, and the unemployment rate at 4.2%, that it's crazy to think about cutting rates. You could also argue that much of the economy is stalling, that the pace of job growth has slowed dramatically, and that with housing in the tank, we need lower rates. Then on top of this situation, layer in the fact that we have this weird bifurcated economy, with the AI sector growing like gangbusters. And then add onto that the attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve coming from the Trump administration. And furthermore, trade policy is still a moving target. To make sense of this complicated time — and to look ahead to next week's Jackson Hole conference — we speak with Skanda Amarnath, the executive director of Employ America.

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1:07.8	So here's why I'm so confused right now.
1:09.6	Like if someone said to me, just one reason.
1:12.5	If someone said to me, look, you know, the economy is slowing down. Clearly job creation is
1:18.1	in the tank. It's decelerating. Housing is in the tank, et cetera. There's a bunch of sectors
1:23.4	that are soft when you need rate cuts. I don't know. Okay. That sounds good. Inflation has come down quite a bit from where it was, but it's still elevated. And then if someone said, look, the stock market's record highs, PPI just came in super hot. Inflation is still above levels, et cetera. Are you insane to even be talking about rate cuts? I'd be like, oh, yeah, okay, that makes sense, too. Like, I find many kinds of arguments to be very persuasive right here. I don't have a strong views.
1:27.9	I'm not one for a... cuts. I'd be like, oh, yeah, okay, that makes sense, too. Like, I find many kinds of arguments to be
1:44.7	very persuasive right here. I don't have a strong view. I'm not one for hyperbole. I try not to be, right? I try to be a good journalist in that sense. But I would honestly say, like, this is one of the most difficult macro environments to call in probably my professional career, which is longer than I would necessarily like it to be at this point.
2:03.3	But as you said, if you look at the stock market, which feeds into financial conditions, right?
2:08.2	Look at financial conditions.
2:09.5	Like, financial conditions do not look that restrictive at the moment.
2:13.1	And yet you do have people who say that actually we are still in restrictive territory.
	...

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