Lots More on the Big Problem With the Monthly Jobs Report

Odd Lots

Bloomberg

News, Investing, Business, News Commentary, Business News

4.4 • 1.6K Ratings

🗓️ 4 September 2025

⏱️ 28 minutes

🔗️ Recording | iTunes | RSS

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Summary

We've been in a strange labor market for a while now. The unemployment rate is still nice and low at 4.2%. But the pace of job creation has been slowing markedly. And furthermore, not only has the pace of job creation been slowing, it seems almost every monthly Non-Farm Payrolls number ends up getting revised lower. Of course, this comes at a time of some big transitions in the workforce — whether we're talking immigration changes, aging demographics, or AI. As such, just understanding the monthly data has never been more difficult. And because it's so difficult, it's also challenging to get a read-through from data to policy. On this episode we speak with Steven Englander, global head of G10 FX research and North America strategy at Standard Chartered Bank. In addition to talking about the state of the labor market, we also discuss the goings-on in bond markets, and why the stress is particularly acute in Europe.

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1:02.4	Bloomberg Audio Studios.
1:05.0	Podcasts, Radio News.
1:08.2	Joe, I have an embarrassing confession.
1:10.3	Go on. You know the birth-death adjustment? I have an embarrassing confession. Go on. You know the birth death adjustment?
1:13.5	I have the same confession. I used to think it was something about like the population of people
1:18.9	and the labor supply, but it's not. It's about business formation. Yes, that's right. Oh,
1:23.4	my confession is even more embarrassing, which is that I literally always forget what it is.
1:30.2	I did a deadlift.
1:31.3	I'm both the most popular trader and most successful trader at Citadel.
1:36.1	Fed is going viral.
1:37.6	Barges.
1:38.3	This is an after-school special except...
1:40.1	I've decided I'm going to base my entire personality going forward on campaigning for a strategic pork reserve in the U.S.
	...

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