Looming Problems
The Dividend Cafe
The Dividend Cafe - The Bahnsen Group
4.9 • 572 Ratings
🗓️ 25 August 2023
⏱️ 22 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
Summary
Today's Post - https://bahnsen.co/3Pe4vqK
The right thing to do with Dividend Cafe the weekend USC football season is beginning is just replay last year’s edition over and over again, one of my favorite Dividend Cafes of all time … But alas, I have never rehashed old material for a Dividend Cafe since this weekly writing began in September of 2008 and I won’t start now. Fresh and new every week is the commitment, so fresh and new you shall receive (no matters how much Fight On it sometimes entails).
You may have heard that tbere are other things happening in the world besides USC’s imminent kickoff to their season. As I type Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, is preparing to speak at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. In the last 15 months or so he has raised the federal funds target rate over 5%, something nearly 100% of economists would have predicted would break the back of the economy a year ago. Here we are a year later, and not only is the economy not broken, but markets are not all that distraught, either. They aren’t great. And economic growth is tepid. But nothing has broken. Yet.
But we are not exactly out of the woods, either. And in fact one could argue that the damage done from the Fed’s tightening has surfaced (or is about to surface) in less obvious ways. And that is the subject of this week’s Dividend Cafe. Maybe the Fed wants to create 7% unemployment (because, you know, more people unemployed brings down prices). Maybe a lot of economists predict that will happen (and were predicting it 18 months ago). But whether economic recession should happen (it shouldn’t) or will happen (TBD), there are certainly other looming problems that warrant discussion. And for that discussion, you will want to jump in to this week’s Dividend Cafe!
Links mentioned in this episode: TheDCToday.com DividendCafe.com TheBahnsenGroup.com
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Welcome to the Dividing Cafe weekly market commentary focused on dividends in your portfolio |
| 0:06.6 | and dividends in your understanding of economic life. |
| 0:12.2 | Hello and welcome to this Friday's Dividend Cafe recording the day before USC football starts and unfortunately not providing a dividend cafe this year, |
| 0:26.8 | as I did last year when the USC football season was starting, |
| 0:30.8 | where I actually talk about the correlation between SC football and markets. |
| 0:36.3 | It was by far the greatest dividend cafe ever written and I decided |
| 0:41.3 | very early this morning to not do a repeat of last year's masterpiece, but instead actually address |
| 0:50.2 | a new current relevant topic. And that topic this week is going to have to do with the Fed tightening cycle that we're in, |
| 1:01.4 | and what some of the aftermath of that may be, has been so far and could be into the future. |
| 1:09.2 | From the time I started writing Divencaffe, very early this morning, |
| 1:13.1 | to the time I'm recording right now, Jay Powell's speech at Jackson Hole has already happened. |
| 1:17.8 | And so it really was sort of a nothing burger and the markets were not down or up a lot right |
| 1:25.1 | away. And then now they've kind of gone higher but it's still so early |
| 1:27.9 | in the morning that anything can happen in the next few hours and so I don't want to predict where the |
| 1:32.0 | market will close today but whatever it does it wasn't a a big market moving speech the pal gave |
| 1:38.6 | and it was kind of a repeat of where we've been for a little while of you know oh we could still |
| 1:43.8 | have to go higher but maybe we won't and a little while of, you know, oh, we could still have to go |
| 1:44.3 | higher, but maybe we won't and we're data dependent and, you know, we really want to beat inflation, |
| 1:49.1 | but on the other hand, we want to take a look at how things are going and all that kind of stuff. |
| 1:53.4 | So we'll update what market expectations are on Monday and the DC today in terms of Fed futures. |
| 1:59.9 | But yeah, as far as just the broader narrative, |
| 2:03.7 | it wasn't like something happened in the last few hours that makes this dividend cafe already |
... |
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