Hello and welcome to episode 443 of the official establish the run dot com podcast.

My name is Adam Levitt and I'm one of the co-founders here at ETR and we're coming off

of a the edge still exists kind of weak. Sometimes in life it's the small things you know

uh Adam DFS is too tough now Adam everyone is too sharp hold on a second brother man

slate locks at 1 p.m. Eastern on Sunday. Sequan Barkley is 43% on 43% on a slate where

I thought at least seven running backs were good enough for cash and play more for tournaments

and yes of course I thought sequan Barkley was a great play I played him in cash of course but

to run into that kind of ownership 43% on sequan Barkley with the systemic fragility of giants

offense and sequan Barkley's history of boom bus kind of running I hope I hope that in hindsight

everyone recognizes why playing any expensive-ish running back at 43% is going to be shaky.

But honestly the Barkley thing is bad but not nearly as draw a dropping as the Bengals defense

ownership uh we have you know our algorithm which helps us project ownership that you see in our

projection tables the algo had the Bengals defense for around 45% owned and I actually said we

should manually override that I said people are too sharp now they know you can't play the Bengals

at 20 25 30 30% so they won't be 45% owned I mean we did the article on winning

millimaker trends I even tweeted it let me read what we said in the article it said try to never

eat high ownership at defense slash special teams in DFS the variance and unpredictability

of the position is massive the correlation between ownership and actual DST points

isn't almost a non-existent 0.165 in other words defensive scoring and fantasy is random

and the best way to capitalize on randomness is by leaning into it by taking low-owned defenses

now I know what you're thinking Bengals at 2200 against Cooper Rush it can't fail I have to play

it it can't fail you know you don't I had nine tournament teams this past week didn't play Bengals

...