Well, howdy there, Internet people, it's Bell again. So today, we're going to talk about the Iowa polling, the youth vote exceeding projections, and what that means for election night. Just like with turnout for women, there's a vast difference between the projected early voter turnout and the apparent actual voter turnout.

Voters for Tomorrow, a Gen Z-led group said, quote,

pulling from official early vote totals from Secretary of State data as of 6 p.m. Thursday,

Voters of Tomorrow is tracking increased youth early vote turnout in multiple battleground states

and nationwide. The report indicates about a 20% increase in youth voter turnout over the

projections. The projections are based on 2022. Now, 20% increase is notable all by itself, But when you look at the swing states, the numbers

are even more pronounced. According to their info, Georgia is up a little more than 30%. North

Carolina up by more than 50%. Pennsylvania is up more than 100%. Michigan is showing a 221% increase over

projections. To put those percentages into rough numbers, we're talking about 80,000 more youth votes

in Georgia, more than 100,000 in North Carolina, more than 50,000 in Pennsylvania,

and more than 100,000 in Michigan. So, if you're seeing an increase in early voting among youth

and women, and it holds through the in-person voting? What does this mean? It means

that polls stand a high chance of being off. When polls are put together, they survey a certain

amount of people and then extrapolate based off of the projections of various demographics

and their turnout.

If those projections are off by tens of thousands of votes among demographics that lean

heavily one direction, the results will be off.

Polls are only as good as the underlying assumptions.

Both the youth and women demographics lean heavily toward Harris,

and that's especially true of young women. We still don't know if these trends will hold

through in-person voting on Election Day, but they're already giving people a lot of pause,

and creating panic in some right-leaning political circles.

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