Well, howdy there internet people, Lidsboo again. So today we are going to talk about

escalation and provocations in relationship to foreign policy. There are a lot of people who are framing the recent decision to supply Ukraine more as an escalation, and there are people wondering if that is an accurate framing.

It depends on what they mean.

Is it an escalation in the quality of equipment being provided? Yeah, absolutely. It definitely is.

Is it an escalation in the conflict itself? No, no, not at all in any way. What's this equipment going to be used for?

It's going to be used to mount a counter-offensive.

What has Ukraine been doing?

Mounting counter-offensives.

It doesn't really change that.

It doesn't escalate that.

It just shifts the dynamics.

It makes them more capable at doing that.

Now as far as an escalation goes,

you have to remember how this started.

Russia launched an unprovoked surprise invasion in violation of international law.

The only real escalations from there would be for NATO to get involved directly,

or strategic arms.

One of those isn't going to happen because most people aren't insane.

The other is unlikely to happen because it doesn't appear to be needed and it would be better for Ukraine to do it on their own.

They don't come out on the other side as a country that NATO had to protect.

They come out the other side as a major power in Europe, under their own power.

Aside from that, when people talk about escalation,

...