Well, howdy there internet people, let's go again. So today we are going to talk about the

weather and the climate and Yellowstone and what happened. If you don't know, there was some wild flooding out there, wild.

But that's not what the forecast called for at all.

Forecasts was pretty mild, and it called for minor flooding.

Certainly didn't hint at some of the worst flooding on record.

Didn't really predict flooding that would hit towns, take out bridges, wash out roads, remove houses,

and lead to the evacuation of 10,000 people.

That wasn't in the forecast. Why? What happened? What's going on? The hydrologic models that are used to forecast flooding like this.

They're based on history.

Problem is, we're moving into an era where historical records when it comes to the climate,

they're less useful because the climate is changing. So the historical precedent

not really adequate when it comes to predicting what's going to happen.

You know, we joke about people who forecast the weather all the time

and talk about how they're never right,

but generally they can give us pretty good heads up when something bad's coming, right?

That's going to not be the case. It's going to become less frequent that they're able to give us those heads up.

When it comes to Yellowstone, what they've documented in the change is that there is less

snowfall in the winter, more rain in the spring, which yeah that's a that's a recipe for

flash floods. When it comes to stuff like this, extreme weather incidents are going to become more and more and more common.

So much so that events that are normally called 100 year events,

meaning that in any given year,

there's a 1% chance of them happening, right?

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