Well, howdy there, Internet people, it's Bell again. So today, we're going to talk about

tariff revenues and important notes. The Congressional Budget Office put out its report on the

projections of Trump's tariff revenues and expect to hear a lot about it. So it's important to know what it says.

We've gotten a lot of questions asking whether it's wrong

because it shows the tariffs will generate trillions in revenue.

It's the CBO.

The report isn't wrong, and their math is rarely questionable.

But the answer is only important if you're

asking the right question, and you pay attention to what the answer actually says. The report says

that the tariffs will raise about $2.8 trillion in revenue for the U.S. government over a 10-year window. And that's an important note.

There is no actual expectation that the terrorists remain in place over 10 years. Why did the

CBO use a 10-year window? Because they were asked to. Probably because those asking for the report wanted to compare it to the

budget reconciliation package. The next bit is that the CBO basically just had to estimate what

the tariffs would actually be. They used what was in effect as of 1 p.m. on May 13, 2025 as a baseline. In other words,

they're already obsolete. But the numbers aren't unreasonable estimates given the erratic policies of

Trump. People are asking if it's wrong because of the part that says, quote, because the United States has

implemented no increases in tariffs of this size in many decades, there is little relevant

empirical evidence on their effects. On the one hand, tariff increases of this magnitude could induce consumers and businesses to change their behavior faster than anticipated,

which would cause revenues to be lower than CBO projects.

This means exactly what it says.

It's their best estimate.

And while it's true that the CBO normally doesn't have disclaimers

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