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Beau of The Fifth Column

Let's talk about Trump's jobs report confusion....

Beau of The Fifth Column

Beau of The Fifth Column

Society & Culture

4.8965 Ratings

🗓️ 5 July 2025

⏱️ 5 minutes

🧾️ Download transcript

Summary

Let's talk about Trump's jobs report confusion....

Transcript

Click on a timestamp to play from that location

0:00.0

Well, howdy there, Internet people, it's spell again.

0:05.0

So today, we're going to talk about Trump's job data.

0:10.0

There's been a lot of confusion and a lot of questions about the jobs information that has recently come out.

0:17.0

First, some of the confusion is based on people confusing an ADP estimate, that's a payroll

0:23.6

company, with the Bureau of Labor and Statistics jobs report.

0:28.6

ADP showed negative 33,000 private sector jobs.

0:33.6

The jobs report showed a 147,000 job gain.

0:38.5

That beat the expectations of 117,000.

0:43.7

That's a pretty big swing.

0:46.0

But when you check under the hood, things start to make more sense,

0:49.8

but also get even murkier in some ways.

0:57.9

Because it would seem that Trump's policies are having the exact opposite effect as what was promised. Since the ADP estimate is focused on private sector jobs,

1:06.2

let's remove the government job growth from the Bureau of Labor and Statistics. Since Trump is supposed

1:13.1

to be shrinking the government and doging his way around, it can't be that many, right? Even

1:20.0

if it does include state and local governments. Half. It's half. 73,000. That leaves 74,000 remaining.

1:31.3

What about health care and education?

1:34.3

Two fields being hammered by Trump's agenda as he withholds Congressional approved funding.

1:40.3

And now his new budget is going to make it worse. That's 51,000 jobs. That leaves 23,000

1:50.1

jobs gained. But it's actually worse than that. See, the 147,000 number is a net jobs gain

1:59.8

across all sectors of the economy.

2:03.2

You add all the sectors that had gains, then subtract any sectors that lost jobs.

2:10.5

A number of sectors lost jobs last month.

...

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