Well, howdy there, internet people it spell again.

So today, we're going to talk about recession indicators piling up.

As Trump continues to say, the country is doing great, and the economy is the hottest ever.

The reality is that multiple indicators that tend to

precede economic downturns have piled up like the rubble of the east wing. First is the one

that lets you know stock prices are overvalued. The Buffett indicator compares the market to

the GDP as a percentage.

While the exact number varies by the analysts talking about it,

anything above something around 130% is seen as playing with fire.

It's currently well over 200%.

Second is oil price shocks. That should be obvious. But an unexpected

increase in the cost of something that affects all other prices upsets markets, demand, supply,

and everything on a fundamental level. The International Energy Agency has categorized the oil

shock caused by Trump's war as the worst one in history. Brent was up about 80% year-to-date on Friday.

WTI crude had almost doubled with a 95% increase here to date.

The IEA is saying the oil crunch will get worse in April.

Third, the University of Michigan's Consumer Sentiment Survey has dropped to 53.3.

That's lower than it was in 2008. A big drop like we've been seeing has

preceded every recession in the last 45 years or so. March's reading is actually the

third lowest in the history of the survey. Fourth is another method of valuing the stock

market called the Schiller-CAPE ratio.

We've talked about it before, but briefly.

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