Well, howdy there, Internet people? It's Bell again. So today, we're going to talk about

polling, adjustments, and why some people seem calm. So I got a message. A lot of commentators

seem confident that Trump is going to lose, even though the polls say it's close. I'm asking you because you do better at explaining things

instead of just saying the polls are wrong, which seems like cope. Okay, so there are some people

who are very, very confident the polls are wrong and they have a basis for their beliefs. It's not all just cope. The polls were wrong. And they have a basis for their beliefs.

It's not all just cope.

The polls were wrong in 2016.

They were wrong in 2020.

But it's more than that.

After the polling predicted a Trump loss in 2016, a lot of pollsters adjusted their methodology and basically skewed the polls toward

Trump to make up for his bizarre effect on some people. Then in 2020, they predicted the right

outcome, but many had Biden winning by a lot more than he did. They once again adjusted their

methodology to skew more towards Trump.

Those people who are very confident that the polls are wrong believe one of two things,

or some may actually believe both. First is the belief that the pollsters have now overcompensated.

They've skewed too much in Trump's direction.

This could explain why he didn't do his well during the primaries as the polling said he should.

It would also explain the weird gap between Trump and Carrie Lake.

The other idea is that Trump's poor handling of the

pandemic, his claims about the election, January 6th, the effects of Roe, and losing a

step or two over the years has diminished the Trump effect or that unlikely voters

will show up to keep him out of office.

...