Well, howdy there internet people, let's bow again. So today we are going to talk about

Poland and Belarus, provide a little update on the claims and tensions coming out of that

area. intentions coming out of that area and kind of dive into what the Polish

government thinks might be happening but before we get into that, last week I gave a little bit of a crash

course on how open source intelligence works and how you can get information.

It's worth noting that yesterday, the Ministry of Defense, British Ministry of Defense, uh, reports suggest most of the visible vehicles are trucks and

mini buses with few armored combat vehicles. It remains unclear what has happened to the heavy equipment Wagner used in Ukraine.

There is a realistic possibility that it was forced to return these to the Russian government.

Wagner's ability to secure heavy equipment and enablers such as air

transport will be key factors in its future combat effectiveness. Okay so that is now a real, you know,

intelligence agency saying the exact same thing

that the open source intelligence community was saying last

week.

That's the exact same information. Okay, so what is the Polish government think is going on with Wagner?

They seem to believe that some of Wagner's forces, around a hundred, according to them,

are gearing up to maybe sneak into Poland. That tracks. That makes more sense than anything else to be

honest. Remember that before Ukraine Wagner was really kind of used as Russia's special operations in large part.

They weren't infantry troops the way they got used in Ukraine. A lot of them had

pretty special skills. This makes sense. I think there might be a little bit of anti-immigrant sentiment mixed in with this, but the baseline

story, it tracks.

The concern that they have is Wagner forces not so much openly engaging,

but more starting disruptions

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