Well, howdy there, Internet people, it's Bell again.

So today, we're going to talk about money, history repeating, and your questions.

Sometimes, history establishes a pattern that's worth noting, especially if it's very clear and easily measured.

Sadly, if there's one thing we learn from history repeating,

it's that people don't learn from history repeating. So, on to the question. Bell, you and a

bunch of other people who have a good track record of analyzing data are saying the economy is in

trouble. But the stock market people

I watch say the economy is doing great and has been for years. It's led to debates between my

roommates and I. Is there any one thing you can give me that will help put it in focus?

The markets rarely get in trouble when they're doing okay. They get in trouble when they're doing great. And sometimes doing great

in a specific way is a part of a pattern. The S&P 500 is set up to be more than 20% this year. It's up 27.57% year to date. The average in a year

is historically about 10.5%. So, this year is really good. Last year was really good as well.

That was about 24%. That's amazing. In fact,

two years in a row of more than 20% is very rare. It's only happened a few times in the last

century or so. Let's see. It happened in 1927 and 1928. If you know the history of the stock market,

you probably already know where this is going. 1929 was the stock market crash. It happened in

1935 and 1936. The market started dropping in March or so of 1937. It didn't really stop until early

1938. At that point, the market had lost more than half its value. It rose in 1954 and 55.

The Eisenhower recession started in 57. Then you have the real exception.

1995 and 1996 were followed by more gains in 1997 and 1998. So it doesn't always lead to something bad.

Of course, the one exception was followed by the dot-com crash in March of 2000,

and by 2002, the S&P 500 lost about half its value. The last one actually has a lot of parallels to

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