Let's talk about midterm polling errors....
Belle of the Ranch
Belle of the Ranch
4.9 • 1K Ratings
🗓️ 11 September 2022
⏱️ 4 minutes
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Summary
Let's talk about midterm polling errors....
Transcript
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| 0:00.0 | Well, howdy there, internet people, let's bow again. So today we're going to talk about |
| 0:06.6 | polling when it comes to the midterms and likely voters. and why I said something over on the other channel, the second channel. |
| 0:19.0 | It's called The Roads with Bo, because I know somebody's going to ask. |
| 0:22.0 | I did a Q&A, took questions from Twitter. the roads with Bo because I know somebody's going to ask. |
| 0:23.0 | I did a Q&A, took questions from Twitter and answered them in a video over there and I said that I |
| 0:28.6 | expected there to be polling errors in the midterms. |
| 0:32.1 | And this prompted a whole lot of questions because historically |
| 0:35.2 | I have a whole lot of faith in polling. I have a whole lot of faith in polling because it's |
| 0:40.0 | normally right. It is normally accurate even the times when people point to and say oh the |
| 0:47.3 | polls were off here no I mean they were actually still within the margin of |
| 0:51.8 | error listed down on the bottom. |
| 0:54.0 | They're normally pretty accurate. |
| 0:57.0 | I don't know that that's going to be the case in the midterms, |
| 1:01.0 | and it all hinges on a term that you've probably heard so often if you pay attention |
| 1:08.7 | to polling that you may not even realize that that's occurring anymore. |
| 1:18.0 | The survey of likely voters said that Jack Johnson was going to beat |
| 1:22.0 | John Jackson by two points, right? |
| 1:25.0 | Likely voters. |
| 1:29.0 | The pollsters, they determine who they believe are likely voters, and I think they're |
| 1:37.0 | going to get that wrong. |
| 1:39.2 | Based on the enthusiasm that exists in certain demographics, there's going to be a lot of unlikely |
| 1:47.4 | voters who show up for the midterms based on my perception of things right now. This could change. But right now |
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