Lessons from Election Market History; “The Black Swan” Author Nassim Taleb

Squawk Pod

CNBC

Business News, Investing, Business, News

4 • 494 Ratings

🗓️ 9 November 2020

⏱️ 35 minutes

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Summary

Ed Clissold, market strategist for Ned Davis Research Group, puts this week’s election in perspective with market and election data going back to 1900. Historically, a Republican incumbent victory prompts a market rally in the short term, but a reversal in the year following. Essayist and “Black Swan” investor Nassim Nicholas Taleb outlined the risks of a pandemic earlier in 2020, and now says the solution is simple, if only governments around the world could move past their coronavirus denial. Taleb - who advises Universa Investments, with 100%+ annual return from 2008-2019 - says victor predictions are a sign of incompetence; his election calculus: 50/50. Plus, Covid-19 cases continue to rise as we head into the holiday season.

Transcript

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0:00.0	This is Squawk Pod. I'm C. M.C. producer Katie Kramer. Today on our
0:05.8	podcast, The Final Countdown. Black Swan investor Naseim to Leb is behind his
0:11.1	firm's 105% annual return over the last decade, his key piece of advice
0:16.0	heading into Tuesday's election count.
0:18.0	Last time people made a mistake predicting the winner and it's so opaque that to me it's a sign of a competence try to predict the winner.
0:26.4	You gotta go 50-50.
0:28.0	And election market whiplash has most of us reeling but historian Ed Clisold has data to ground us before Tuesday.
0:35.4	The rally is much stronger when you have the incumbent winning, especially the incumbent
0:40.8	Republican winning.
0:41.8	But when you go into the next year, it tends to reverse.
0:45.8	Those stories, plus from Halloween to the Thanksgiving holiday, COVID cases are rising and
0:51.2	state quarantine policies are shifting this November.
0:54.1	I'm going away for Thanksgiving and I'm just wondering what am I going to be back in my basement
0:58.3	with the delay.
1:00.0	It's Monday November 2nd Squawkpot begins right now.
1:05.0	Here we go, everybody. Good morning.
1:07.0	Welcome to Squawkbox here on ZeeMBC.
1:09.0	I'm Becky Quick, along with Joe Kernan and Andrew Ross Sorckin.
1:12.0	UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson announcing a second national lockdown over the weekend.
1:17.0	It will begin on Thursday, closing all non-essential businesses for the next four weeks,
1:22.0	but leaving schools open. Now people will be
1:24.6	ordered to stay at home except for grocery shopping, medical care or education,
	...

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