Good morning. Welcome to Axios today. It's Friday, November 4th. I'm Nile Buu. Here's

what we're covering today. There's still not a Powerball winner. But first, today's

one big thing. Set aside everything you're thinking about Tuesday's midterm election,

because nobody knows how it's going to unfold.

We're just days away from Tuesday's midterm election. But that's not stopping people

from making predictions. Have you tuned into TV lately? Who's going to win? That's the

question we want to know, right? I haven't seen any polling in the last three weeks that

tells me anything other than this is moving Republicans way. We measure these undecided

and the undecided almost every time are breaking very much anti-biden. This looks like a dead

heat. Axios is managing editor for politics, Margaret

Taliv and national political correspondent Jonathan Swan are here for a big reality

check for our last Friday's state of play before the vote. So what should we be thinking

when we're hearing people making these predictions? There's three things that I think are assumptions

that we should not make. Number one, that will know the results on election night. We

almost certainly won't. We'll probably know what happens to the House. We almost certainly

won't know everything that's going to happen to the Senate. We may not even know who controls

the Senate after election night. We may not know that for a month if Georgia goes to

run off. Number two, we should not assume that the polls that we've seen so far are

right. If a lot of first time voters do vote and they're not captured in the polling, if

a lot of Hispanic voters who have never registered before turn out and they weren't expected to,

if Republican intensity is not as strong as the polls suggest, if Democratic intensity

is stronger than suggested, if abortion ends up being a much bigger issue to suburban women,

...