4.7 • 6.2K Ratings
🗓️ 15 May 2025
⏱️ 37 minutes
🧾️ Download transcript
For today's episode, Lawfare Foreign Policy Editor Daniel Byman talked with Evan Braden Montgomery and Toshi Yoshihara, both Senior Fellows at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, to discuss their recent Lawfare article, "Beijing's Changing Invasion Calculus: How China Might Put Taiwan in its Crosshairs."
Together they discuss how China might use a blockade, subversion, and nuclear threats to intimidate Taiwan, the United States, and key regional states like Japan. They also discuss how Taipei and Washington might change their approach to reduce the risk of Taiwanese coercion.
To receive ad-free podcasts, become a Lawfare Material Supporter at www.patreon.com/lawfare. You can also support Lawfare by making a one-time donation at https://givebutter.com/lawfare-institute.
Support this show http://supporter.acast.com/lawfare.
Hosted on Acast. See acast.com/privacy for more information.
Click on a timestamp to play from that location
0:00.0 | The following podcast contains advertising. |
0:04.4 | To access an ad-free version of the Lawfare podcast, become a material supporter of Lawfare at |
0:11.5 | patreon.com slash lawfare. That's patreon.com slash lawfare. |
0:18.2 | Also, check out Lawfare's other podcast offerings rational security chatter lawfare no bull and the |
0:27.5 | aftermath we know that Taiwan has been penetrated by CCP covert agents agents, saboteurs, and compromised insiders, both |
0:40.9 | within state and society, and that many of these operatives could bribe, intimidate, |
0:46.8 | blackmail, or discredit Taiwanese political leaders or military commanders, of course, |
0:51.9 | and even kill and assassinate them if necessary. |
0:55.0 | It's the Lawfare podcast. I'm Daniel Biman, a foreign policy editor of Lawfare. |
1:01.0 | And I'm with Evan Braden Montgomery and Toshi Yoshihara, who are at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments. |
1:10.0 | Individually, a lot of these coercive efforts are not new, and in some cases don't even have |
1:16.6 | a particularly good historical track record, but if you start thinking about how they might |
1:20.6 | be employed in combination, and because you have a series of at least three, frankly more, |
1:25.6 | but three main targets if you think about Taipei, Tokyo, |
1:28.8 | and Washington, D.C. That creates an opportunity for those different coercive efforts to kind of |
1:33.9 | work in tandem in potentially a very powerful way. We are talking about how China might coerce Taiwan. |
1:43.3 | Your piece is very provocative. |
1:45.0 | You're arguing that invasion might not be the best scenario to plan for. |
1:51.0 | In fact, there's a whole host of other dangerous ways that China might be menacing Taiwan. |
1:56.0 | Let me start by asking you to explain why, if China wants to regain Taiwan, it might not go to war. |
2:04.1 | That invasion might not be a good idea from Beijing's point of view. |
2:08.4 | You know, basically, the argument that we make is that there are a lot of, frankly, common sense reasons |
... |
Please login to see the full transcript.
Disclaimer: The podcast and artwork embedded on this page are from The Lawfare Institute, and are the property of its owner and not affiliated with or endorsed by Tapesearch.
Generated transcripts are the property of The Lawfare Institute and are distributed freely under the Fair Use doctrine. Transcripts generated by Tapesearch are not guaranteed to be accurate.
Copyright © Tapesearch 2025.