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🗓️ 5 August 2025
⏱️ 25 minutes
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0:00.0 | Hello, fellow global capital. I hope you're well. So I have to talk about last week's jobs |
0:06.7 | numbers. The labor market is deteriorating fast. I did a video on this, but the internet cut out. |
0:13.5 | So I had to take it down. So now let's do a better deep dive on this topic because it deserves all of our attention. |
0:22.8 | You guys know from watching my videos. |
0:24.3 | The key component as to whether or not we are in a recession, headed for a recession, |
0:29.8 | or we're going to be able to avoid a recession, is the labor market. |
0:35.2 | And I was just talking about this on another video where at the end of the day, |
0:39.8 | what really matters is what the market thinks. It doesn't really matter what you think. Because 99% |
0:44.9 | of the people on this chat right now would probably say, all right, 75% of Americans feel like it's a |
0:53.2 | recession. For them, it is. And unfortunately, the market |
0:56.4 | really doesn't care about that. But what the market does care about is the NBER coming out and |
1:02.6 | announcing it, even if it's after the fact. And we know that the NBER's decision making process |
1:09.6 | heavily, heavily revolves around the labor market and especially |
1:14.6 | non-farm payrolls going negative. So let's go into the BLS report specifically. Now, I'm sure |
1:23.8 | many of you have heard that it was all about the revisions, all about the |
1:28.3 | revisions. |
1:28.9 | And it is true. |
1:30.2 | It was all, well, not all of it was about the revisions, but this was the story of the day. |
1:36.0 | But what they didn't go into is how these revisions compare to other times in history, such |
1:44.1 | as the surveysus sickness and the GFC. |
1:47.9 | And like we said in the title or the thumbnail, this is worse than the GFC. |
1:54.5 | That was not clickbait. |
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