Lake Shrimp
Divided Argument
Will Baude & Dan Epps
4.8 • 766 Ratings
🗓️ 16 January 2026
⏱️ 54 minutes
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| 0:00.0 | Oh, yay. Oh, yay. Oh, yay. Oh, yeah. The judicial power of the United States shall be vested in one Supreme Court. |
| 0:08.1 | Unless there is any more question to be able to find an argument in this case. |
| 0:10.9 | All persons having business before the Honorable, the Supreme Court of the United States are in honor us to give their attention. |
| 0:20.2 | Welcome to Divided Argument, an unscheduled, unpredictable Supreme Court podcast. I'm Dan Epps. |
| 0:25.5 | And I'm Will Bowd. So Dan, I was, my colleagues asked me yesterday, when are we going to get the |
| 0:30.0 | tariffs decision? And I said, tomorrow. Were you just doing that just to be kind of contrarian |
| 0:35.4 | and who and everyone else? I mean, I know everybody wants that, |
| 0:39.1 | but, you know, my view is always they're going to disappoint you and it's going to take longer than you want it to. Yeah, but then you have to control for that. So I think somebody said, when do you think we're into the terror position? So I said, tomorrow, because that was my best guess. Really? Do you really think that? |
| 0:52.3 | Well, I don't think it anymore. |
| 0:54.6 | Well, I mean, like, why did you think that? |
| 0:56.4 | I mean, just because you think it's incredibly urgent and you trust their ability to get it out relatively quickly. I mean, the thing is, it's going to be an opinion where, like, more than half of them are going to write, don't you think? Well, the longer it takes, the more I think that. |
| 1:11.4 | I thought when they granted it schedules it for relatively rapid argument and from the |
| 1:16.6 | nature of the arguments that they were going to want to get it decided quickly. |
| 1:20.1 | And I understand I was with the people who thought it might well have been the decision |
| 1:24.4 | last Friday when we got like the one, five, four second andger thing that we should do so do at some point so then I thought okay maybe it was they were going to get it ready then but now you know just as Kagan is tweaking her occurrence or whatever but I was wrong and I do think of course the speed of which they get it out depends a little bit on what's going to say and how people are going to write. |
| 1:44.5 | Yeah. |
| 1:44.9 | And so, of course, I might have had a guess ex ante about what I was going to say and who's going to write. But as it takes longer, then I have to also update my guesses of what it's going to say and how people are right. And your guess is, what, say, no to tariffs, narrow opinion, cheap justice? My post-arg argument, yeah, my post-argument guess was no to tariffs, narrow opinion by the chief |
| 2:08.4 | holding a kind of complicated coalition together with a concurrence by Gorsuch and a dissent. |
| 2:13.8 | As it takes longer, I think the odds that the administration is winning go up and the odds that you get a lot of different opinions go up. |
| 2:19.9 | The odds of like a 414 with just this Barrett writing only about Algonquin and licensing fees or whatever go way up. |
| 2:27.9 | Well, I predicted on social media that we would get a few random cases. I named a couple, none of which were |
| 2:37.9 | correct, but we did get instead of Tariff's case. We got a few kind of small ball, smaller ball cases. |
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